[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds are forecast to become northeast to east 30 to 35 knots
this evening with seas 10 to 15 feet within about 90 nm of the
northwest coast of Colombia as the nocturnal pressure gradient
tightens over the area.  See the latest High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 03N20W.  The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the equator
at 29W to near the coast of South America at 03S43W.  Scattered
moderate to strong convection is located from 01S to 04N between
20W and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Florida Keys to 24N90W to the
central Bay of Campeche.  Strong northerly winds to 30 knots are
located south of 22N west of the front.  Broken to overcast low
and middle level clouds with scattered showers were noted along
and within 60 to 90 nm northwest of the front.  Strong westerly
winds aloft are located over the northern half of the gulf
becoming moderate south of about 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure over the central and western Atlantic
supports persistent fresh to strong trades over most of the
Caribbean.  Refer to the special feature section above for more
details.  Moderate westerly winds aloft cover most of the area
with water vapor imagery showing strong subsidence.

...HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery depicts strong subsidence over the island
with light westerly flow aloft.  The latest visible satellite
imagery shows only a few westward moving showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends through 32N67W to the Florida Keys.  South
of 29N west of the front winds are north to northeast 20 to 25
knots and seas less than 8 feet.  Broken to overcast low and
middle level clouds with scattered showers were noted along and
within 90 to 120 nm northwest of the front.  A 1033 mb high is
centered near 34N37W with ridging to 26N65W and dominates the
remainder of the western Atlantic and most of the central
Atlantic.  A weak cold front is located through 32N11W to 27N20W
to 28N30W to 23N45W.

A subtropical jet emerges over the southeast Caribbean near
12N63W and extends to 15N50W to 20N30W and then weakens in the
vicinity of 27N15W.  Broad ridging aloft covers the area south
of the jet to the equator.  A middle/upper level trough axis is
located through 32N16W to 25N35W to 18N60W.  A cyclonic
circulation is forecast to develop near 26N25W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAB
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