[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140930
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
530 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
15N35W to 04N38W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear, however extensive intrusion of Saharan dry
air and dust are hindering deep convection. Shallow moisture and
middle to upper level divergence support scattered to isolated
showers from 02N to 12N between 30W and 42W.

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 18N59W to 06N59W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to favorable
wind shear S of 16N that along with moderate moist, and upper
level divergence support scattered showers and tstms from 11N to
16N between 56W and 65W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 23N70W to 11N70W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear
N of 15N. Shallow moisture and middle to upper level divergent
flow support scattered to isolated showers, and tstms from 20N to
23N between 67W and 74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N17W
to 08N30W to 06N40W. The ITCZ begins near 06N40W and continues
along 05N50W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered heavy showers are from 02N to 10N
between 42W and 52W and from 07N to 14N E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf waters providing
mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds. In the SW Gulf, a surface
trough is in the E Bay of Campeche where it supports fresh to
strong NE winds. An upper level low centered just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula support isolated showers in the E half of the Bay of
Campeche and S of 27N between 86W and 91W. Otherwise, the
remnants of TD-four are in the E Gulf where are analyzed as a
surface trough extending from 29N84W to 22N85W. This feature
continue under a divergent wind pattern aloft that supports
scattered showers and tstms E of 86W. Looking ahead, the surface
trough associated with the remnants of T.D Four will move across
the central Gulf late today with scattered to isolated showers.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave over the central
Caribbean supporting showers across Hispaniola and adjacent waters.
See the waves section above for further details. Latest
scatterometer data show the continuation of fresh to strong winds
over the south-central Caribbean S of 13N between 72W and 75W.
This area of strong trade winds is forecast to continue through
Sunday morning with the strongest winds pulsing at night. The
EPAC monsoon trough moves just S of Costa Rica and Panama to a
1012 mb low over NW Colombia, which supports scattered to numerous
heavy showers and tstms in the SW basin S of 11N. Looking ahead,
the wave over the central Caribbean will move across E Cuba and
Jamaica tonight with showers. A new tropical wave will be moving
across the Lesser Antilles into the E Caribbean this afternoon
supporting showers E of 70W through Saturday evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave moving across the Island supports isolated
showers that extend to the Windward Passage and northern coastal waters.
This activity is forecast to continue today and Saturday as the
tropical wave moves west to E Cuba and Jamaica.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are analyzed across the basin. See tropical
waves section for details. The westernmost tropical wave is
supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms over the S Bahamas
and adjacent waters from 20N to 23N between 67W and 74W. Similar
convection is in the north-central basin from 26N to 30N between
56W and 60W being supported by an upper level low. Otherwise, the
Bermuda-Azores high extends a ridge across the remainder of the
forecast region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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