[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 16N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 10N
between 41W and 44W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W from 19N southward,
moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 17N
between 60W and 66W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 23N, moving
westward 15 knots, through Haiti. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 19N to 25N between 68W
and 76W. This precipitation covers the waters that are between
Jamaica and Cuba, the Windward Passage, across parts of the SE
Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean that is to the north of
Hispaniola and to the east of the Bahamas.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 11N22W. The ITCZ continues from 11N22W to
08N28W, 07N35W, 05N42W, and 06N54W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong: in coastal plains and coastal waters of Africa
from 12N to 14N between 15W and 17W, and from 07N to 09N between
54W and 58W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate elsewhere from
14N southward between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the
Florida Panhandle. A surface trough is along 85W/86W from the
Yucatan Channel to the Florida Big Bend. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, with thunder,
from 23N in the Gulf of Mexico, to the coastal plains of the
U.S.A., between Florida and 95W. The comparatively greatest amount
of precipitation that is reaching land is between the Florida Big
Bend and 95W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none. KVAF was reporting LIFR and IFR for a few observations
during the last hour or so.

MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, with thunder,
from 23N in the Gulf of Mexico, to the coastal plains of the
U.S.A., between Florida and 95W. The comparatively greatest amount
of precipitation that is reaching land is between the Florida Big
Bend and 95W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N
northward between Cuba and Puerto Rico. An upper level circulation
center is near 17N73W. just to the south of Haiti.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the
east and southeast of the cyclonic wind flow, mostly from 70W
eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow also covers the Caribbean Sea
from the Yucatan Channel southeastward, away from the cyclonic
wind flow that is near Cuba, toward 14N75W, and from 14N
southward between 75W and Central America.

The monsoon trough is along 08N75W in Colombia, beyond 09N84W
in southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, some weakening and dissipating, from 07N to 10N between
76W and 83W.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
14/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.58 in
Veracruz in Mexico, 0.08 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, 0.06 in
Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.04 in Trinidad, and 0.02 in San Juan in
Puerto Rico. a TRACE was reported in Guadeloupe and in Kingston
in Jamaica.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SE wind flow that is moving across Hispaniola
currently, is part of a larger-scale area of overall cyclonic wind
flow. The upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
and the Atlantic Ocean from 15N to 21N between 68W and SE Cuba.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 23N, moving
westward 15 knots, through Haiti. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 19N to 25N between 68W
and 76W. This precipitation covers the waters that are between
Jamaica and Cuba, the Windward Passage, across parts of the SE
Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean that is to the north of
Hispaniola and to the east of the Bahamas.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: nearby rain and thunder. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana:
VFR. Santiago: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that the first half of day
one will consist of Hispaniola being on the northern side of a
NW-to-SE oriented trough. The second half of day one will consist
of purely cyclonic wind flow, with a cyclonic circulation center
on top of the area. Day two will consist of cyclonic wind flow
with a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola during the next
48 hours, either with an E-to-W oriented ridge, or with an
anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that a NE-to-SW oriented ridge will cover
Hispaniola for the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is 28N64W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between 57W
and 74W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong, elsewhere, from 20N to 31N between 57W and 73W, away from
the precipitation that is accompanying the 72W/73W tropical wave.

An upper level trough extends from a 27N44W cyclonic circulation
center, to 23N46W, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is near 14N44W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds
the trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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