[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
15N33W to 04N37W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear, however extensive intrusion of Saharan dry
air and dust are hindering deep convection. Shallow moisture and
middle to upper level divergence support scattered to isolated showers
from 0N to 12N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 17N58W to 05N58W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to favorable
wind shear S of 16N that along with moderate moist, and upper
level divergence support scattered showers and tstms from 11N to
16N between 56W and 62W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 23N69W to 10N70W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear.
Shallow moisture and middle to upper level divergent flow support
isolated showers and tstms from 17N to 23N between 66W and 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N16W
to 10N27W to 05N40W. The ITCZ begins near 05N40W and continues to
06N50W to 08N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered heavy showers are from 01N to 11N
between 38W and 51W. Isolated showers and tstms are from 07N to
14N E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf waters providing
mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds. In the SW Gulf, a surface
trough is moving off the Yucatan Peninsula into the E Bay of
Campeche where it supports fresh to strong NE winds. An upper
level low centered just N of the Yucatan Peninsula support
isolated showers in the E half of the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise,
the remnants of TD-four made it to the E Gulf where are analyzed
as a surface trough extending from 29N84W to the western tip of
Cuba. This feature continue under a divergent wind patter aloft
that supports isolated showers and tstms E of 87W. Looking ahead,
the surface trough associated with the remnants of T.D Four will
move across the central Gulf late today with scattered to isolated
showers.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave over the central
Caribbean supporting showers across Hispaniola and adjacent waters.
See the waves section above for further details. Latest
scatterometer data show the continuation of fresh to strong winds
over the south-central Caribbean S of 13N between 69W and 74W,
including the Gulf of Venezuela. This area of strong trade winds
is forecast to continue during the next two days with the
strongest winds pulsing at night. The EPAC monsoon trough moves
across Costa Rica and Panama to a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia,
which supports scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of
12N W of 80W. Looking ahead, the wave over the central Caribbean
will move across E Cuba and Jamaica tonight with showers. A new
tropical wave will be moving across the Lesser Antilles into the E
Caribbean this afternoon supporting showers E of 70W through
Saturday evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Available moisture associated with a tropical wave in the central
Caribbean is supporting isolated showers across the Island and
adjacent waters. This activity is forecast to continue today and
Saturday as the tropical wave moves west to E Cuba and Jamaica.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are analyzed across the basin. See tropical
waves section for details. The westernmost tropical wave is
supporting isolated showers and tstms over the S Bahamas and
Hispaniola and Mona Passage northern adjacent waters S of 23N.
Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high extends a ridge across the
remainder of the forecast region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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