[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 16N25W
to 05N28W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
is in a region of favorable wind shear, however extensive
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust into the wave environment is
hindering deep convection. Shallow moisture and middle to upper
level diffluence support scattered to isolated showers from 05N
to 11N between 22W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
13N47W to 04N44W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of neutral to unfavorable wind shear, and its
environment is being affected by extensive intrusion of Saharan
dry air and dust, which limit convection to isolated showers from
07N to 11N between 42W and 48W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
20N64W to 10N64W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. Shallow moisture and
middle level divergent flow support scattered to isolated showers
and tstms in the NE Caribbean and adjacent waters, including
Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is moving across the NW Caribbean and Central
America with axis extending from 20N86W to 09N88W, moving W at
20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly
unfavorable wind shear, and CIRA LPW imagery show large patches
of dry air in its environment, which limit the convection to
scattered to isolated showers S of 21N W of 83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W
to 08N24W to 04N39W. The ITCZ begins near 04N39W and continues to
05N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered heavy showers are from 07N to 10N between 33W
and 41W and from 09N to 12N E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters
producing mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds. This ridge and
wind pattern will persist through later today. A surface trough is
moving across the central and southern Florida Peninsula under a
divergent wind patter aloft. This is supporting scattered heavy
showers and tstms for these areas of Florida as well as adjacent
SE Gulf waters S of 26N E of 82W, including the Florida Straits. Similar
convection continues in the E Bay of Campeche being supported by
a tropical wave that moves across the far NW Caribbean waters and
northern Central America. Looking ahead, a surface trough,
associated with the remnants of T.D Four, currently located over E
Cuba, will move across south Florida later today, and across the
E Gulf Thursday night into Friday, reaching the central Gulf later
on Friday. This trough is expected to increase the likelihood of
showers with embedded thunderstorms.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features in the basin are two tropical waves, one moving
across the NW Caribbean waters and another over E basin. See the
waves section above for further details. The latest scatterometer
pass continue to provide observations of fresh to strong winds
over the south-central Caribbean S of 13N between 70W and 75W,
including the Gulf of Venezuela. This area of strong trade winds
is forecast to continue during the next two days. The EPAC monsoon
trough moves across southern Costa Rica and northern Panama to a
1010m mb low over the SW Caribbean near 11N78W. These features
are underneath upper level divergent flow aloft, which is
supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 16N W of 80W. Looking
ahead, the wave over the E Caribbean will move across Hispaniola
Friday with showers. Another tropical wave will enter the E
Caribbean Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Available moisture associated with a tropical wave in the E
Caribbean is producing scattered showers to isolated showers
across the Island. This activity is forecast to continue today and
Friday as the moves continue to move west. Then showers are
forecast to resume again Saturday night.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of T.D. Four continue situated in the SW N Atlc
waters across E Cuba while it further weakens. Farther W a surface
trough moves across central and southern Florida under a divergent
environment aloft that support scattered heavy showers and tstms
extending offshore. Model guidance continue to suggest that a
trough associated with the remnants of T.D. Four will move across
the Bahamas reaching south Florida today. Otherwise, the Bermuda-
Azores high extends a ridge across the remainder of the forecast
region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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