[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 16N24W
to 05N26W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of favorable
wind shear, however extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and
dust are hindering deep convection. Shallow moisture and middle to
upper level diffluence support scattered showers from 06N-11N
between 21w-28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
14N45W to 04N42W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
neutral to favorable wind shear, however extensive intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust are hindering deep convection. Shallow
moisture support scattered showers from 03N-06N between 38W-43W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
21N61W to 09N62W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of
favorable wind shear. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the trough axis.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean Sea with axis extending
from 20N84W to 08N84W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a
region of mainly unfavorable wind shear, and CIRA LPW imagery show
large patches of dry air in its environment. However, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N-16N between
80W-86W. Scattered moderate convection ia also from 16N-19N
between 84W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 14N17W
to 08N22W to 06N36W. The ITCZ begins near 04N44W and continues to
the coast of South America near 05N53W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-09N between 31W-36W, and from 06N-10N
between 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over Central and S Florida, and the Straits of
Florida, from 28N80W to 24N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 25N-29N between 80W-83W, moving W.
Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is inland over the
N Gulf States from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. 10 Kt SE
surface flow is over most of the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over Florida supporting the
convection. A very small upper level low is over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Another large upper level low is over N Mexico near
29N102W. Expect over the next 24 hours for additional convection
over Florida, the NE Gulf, and N Central Gulf.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features in the basin are the tropical waves moving
across the Caribbean waters. See above. 10-20 kt tradewinds are
elsewhere with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.
Scattered showers remain over Cuba. In the upper levels, an upper
level high is centered over the W Caribbean near 14N78W. Another
upper level high is centered E of the Lesser Antilles near 18N55W.
Expect the tropical waves to produce additional convection over
the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola mostly
due to upper level diffluence. A surface trough, remnants of T.D.
four is NW of the Island from 24N76W to 20N74W, moving away.
Expect additional convection to advect over the Island from the E
over the next 24 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of T.D. Four continues to produce scattered showers
over the Central Bahamas. A very large 1032 mb high is centered
over the Central Atlantic near 36N44W. A Surface ridge axis
extends SW from the high center to Georgia producing fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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