[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121817 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

CORRECTION FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/25W from the Cabo
Verde Islands near 15N southward. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 10N
between 20W and 26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16N47W 10N44W 05N42W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 13N southward between 30W and 50W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 17N to 18N between 60W
and 61W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N
southward, moving into eastern sections of Honduras and
Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 10N to 17N between 80W and 85W, in parts
of Honduras and Nicaragua, and in the coastal waters between 80W
and Central America.

A tropical wave is along 95W/97W, from 20N southward, moving
through southern Mexico, just to the west of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Convective precipitation:
nothing significant at the moment.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through southern Mauritania near
17N16W, to 08N23W, 07N32W, and 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from
04N34W to 03N37W and 03N50W. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 11N between 50W and 62W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 12N southward
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers Mexico and the coastal
waters from 26N southward, between 96W and 102W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Big Bend of
Texas.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 19N89W, in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area
from Guatemala to 25N between the Yucatan Channel and 94W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico, to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula cyclonic center,
from 93W/94W eastward.

Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong,
from 27N northward from 93W eastward, and from 22N northward from
95W westward along the coasts of Texas and Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle to 22N96W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVQT.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: rain and thunder still are possible in the Deep South,
closer to the coast, and near drizzle in Laredo. rain and thunder
are near Kingsville. light rain in Angleton/Lake Jackson. rain
and thunder have ended for the moment in Galveston. rain and
thunder are in Beaumont/Port Arthur. rain and thunder are active
in parts of the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding
smaller communities. LOUISIANA: rain and thunder in Slidell,
along the NE corner of Lake Pontchartrain. light rain in
Boothville. rain and thunder also are just to the north of the
SW corner of the area, more inland. MISSISSIPPI: light rain in
Pascagoula. MVFR in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area.
ALABAMA: light rain in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area.
FLORIDA: rain and thunder have ended for the moment in
Crestview. light rain in Destin. rain and thunder have ended for
the moment in the Panama City metropolitan area. rain and
thunder are active in Apalachicola.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
20N southward between 67W and Honduras/Belize.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 19N89W, in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area
from Guatemala to 25N between the Yucatan Channel and 94W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 77W westward, beyond
Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation:
earlier numerous strong from 14N southward between 75W and 80W,
has weakened and dissipated. Convective debris clouds, and
possible lingering rainshowers, are from 14N southward between
75W and 80W.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
12/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.58 in St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.12 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.10
in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.07 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.02
in Teguciagalpa, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is associated with a NW-to-
SE oriented trough. Some rainshowers have developed in the
easternmost part of the island.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling
1800 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago:
VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind
flow will encompass the area during the next 48 hours. Either a
broad trough or a cyclonic circulation center will be present
across the island. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
an inverted trough will move across the area, spreading cyclonic
wind flow to the island for the first 24 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. Anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola
during day two. A ridge will spread westward, from Puerto Rico.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough
will spread cyclonic wind flow across the area for much of the
next 48 hours. Expect some SE wind flow during the last 6 hours
to 12 hours also.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 77W/78W from Cuba to 30N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from Cuba to
32N between 73W and 82W in Florida. A second surface trough is
along 72W/73W from 20N to 26N. Convective precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Bahamas and the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 24N between 66W and 75W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is 27N62W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 22N to 34N between
54W and 67W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong from 20N northward between 54W and 66W.

A surface trough is along 51W/52W from 16N to 26N. Convective
precipitation: Broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
from 18N to 28N between 43W and 55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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