[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
547 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 16N27W
to 05N27W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
is in a region of favorable wind shear, however extensive
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust into the wave environment is
hindering deep convection. Shallow moisture and middle to upper
level diffluence support scattered to isolated showers from 05N to
10N between 22W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
14N49W to 04N50W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of neutral to unfavorable wind shear, and its
environment is being affected by extensive intrusion of Saharan
dry air and dust, which limit convection to scattered showers
from 04N to 12N between 43W and 55W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
22N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. Abundant
moisture and middle to upper level divergent flow support
scattered to numerous heavy showers and tstms in the NE Caribbean
and adjacent SW N Atlc waters, including Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is moving across northern Central America and EPAC
adjacent waters. Its axis extends from 19N87W to 09N89W, moving W
at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
mainly unfavorable wind shear, and CIRA LPW imagery show large
patches of dry air in its environment, which limit the convection
to scattered showers S of 20N W of 83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 14N17W
to 09N23W. The ITCZ begins near 09N30W and continues to 07N44W to
06N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered heavy showers are from 02N to 10N between 33W
and 44W and from 09N to 14N E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters
producing mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds. This ridge and
wind pattern will persist through later today. A surface trough is
moving across the central and southern Florida Peninsula under a
divergent wind patter aloft. This is supporting scattered to
isolated showers and tstms mainly for SE Florida and the Florida
Straits. Looking ahead, a surface trough, associated with the
remnants of T.D Four, currently located over the northern Bahamas
and the Great Bahama Bank, will move across south Florida later
today, and across the E Gulf tonight into Friday, reaching the
central Gulf later on Friday. This trough is expected to increase
the likelihood of showers with embedded thunderstorms.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features in the basin are two tropical waves, one soon
moving into the Yucatan Peninsula and another just E of Puerto
Rico. See the waves section above for further details. The latest
scatterometer pass continue to provide observations of fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean S of 13N between
70W and 75W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. This area of strong
trade winds is forecast to continue during the next two days with
the strongest winds pulsing at night. The EPAC monsoon trough
moves across Costa Rica and Panama to NW Colombia, which underneath
upper level divergent flow supports scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms S of 16N W of 78W. Looking ahead, the wave over
the E Caribbean will move across Hispaniola Friday with showers.
Another tropical wave will enter the E Caribbean Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Available moisture associated with a tropical wave in the E
Caribbean is producing isolated showers across the Island being
the strongest shower activity in S Haiti and adjacent waters.
This activity is forecast to continue today and Friday as the
tropical wave continues to move west. Then showers are forecast
to resume again Saturday night.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of T.D. Four continue situated in the SW N Atlc
waters across the northern Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank where
it generates scattered to isolated heavy showers and tstms.
Farther W a surface trough moves across central and southern
Florida under a divergent environment aloft that support scattered
to isolated showers mainly over SE Florida and adjacent waters.
Model guidance continue to suggest that the trough associated
with the remnants of T.D. Four will move across south Florida
today with showers. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high extends a
ridge across the remainder of the forecast region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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