[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0705 PM EST Mon JAN 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The nocturnal pressure gradient will tighten tonight between the
surface ridge over the west Atlantic and the lower pressure over
South America to support gale force winds across the south-
central Caribbean mainly from 11N-13N between 74W-77W. Seas to
13 ft are expected. Please see the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...East Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is forecast over the far eastern Atlantic starting in
about 18 hours: The outlook from METEO-FRANCE for the forecast
period 03/1200 UTC to 04/1200 UTC, consists of: persistence of
SW gale in IRVING near 33N31W. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE
High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links:
MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on
the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across southwest Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 06N17W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to 01N40W to the coast of South America near
00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between
33W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 30N93W to 24N98W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 84W-92W. The
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-25 kt high pressure
return flow with fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Expect in 24
hours for the cold front to extend from the Florida Panhandle to
N of Tampico Mexico, with convection mostly over the eastern
Gulf. Also expect 10 kt southerly return flow over the SE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is expected along the coast of Colombia starting on
03/0600 UTC and ending on 03/1200 UTC. 15-30 kt tradewinds are
over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are
over the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N between 82W-88W. More showers
are inland over Honduras, N Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers over Puerto
Rico. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over
the E Pacific near 12N95W with a ridge axis extending NE to
beyond E Cuba. The entire Caribbean and Central America has very
strong subsidence.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola moving W with the
tradewind flow. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is off the coast of N Florida from 31N79W to
28N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1028
mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N65W. A cold
front extends from the E Atlantic near 31N29W to 25N40W to
23N55W. A stationary front continues to 22N70W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. Another dissipating cold
front is over the E Atlantic near the Canary Islands from 31N15W
to 26N24W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this front. In
the upper levels a ridge is over the W Atlantic W of 60W with
strong subsidence. An upper level trough is over the eastern and
central Atlantic between 20W-60W N of 20N. Expect over the next
24 hours for both fronts to move E with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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