[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 PM EST MON JAN 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The tight pressure gradient over the southern Caribbean supports
gale force winds from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W. This gale
will end by 1800 UTC as the pressure gradient begins to relax over
the region. Seas of 11 to 14 ft are expected over the gale area
today. Please see the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A gale is forecast over the far eastern Atlantic starting in
about 24 hours: The 24 hour outlook from METEO-FRANCE for the
forecast period 03/1200 UTC to 04/1200 UTC, consists of:
persistence of SW gale in IRVING. Please refer to the METEO-
FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following
links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across southwest Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 07N13W to 06N17W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 05N25W to 01N40W to 01S50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection are from the equator to 08N between
28W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge axis extends from western Atlantic high
pressure across South Florida to the west-central Gulf of Mexico.
This supports mainly fresh to strong southeast to south winds
across the Gulf basin. An upper trough inland over the central
United States is supporting a cold front along the Texas coast
with a surface low pressure inland over east Texas. These
features are supporting a squall line that as of 1500 UTC was
moving over the coastal waters along the northeastern Texas gulf
coast, as well as clusters of thunderstorms within 90 nm of the
northern Gulf coast between 85W and 91W. A thermal surface trough
along the Mexico Coast near Vera Cruz supports isolated showers.
Over the next 24 hours the strong southerly flow will diminish as
the cold front crosses the northern Gulf. Numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop east
of the front mainly north of 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong western Atlantic high pressure is supporting fresh to
strong trades across the majority of the central and eastern
Caribbean and gale force winds north of the Colombia coast. Please
refer to the special features section for more details regarding
this gale. Moderate to fresh trades cover the northwestern
Caribbean. A weak surface trough extends from 19N83W to 14N82W
supporting scattered showers. Another low latitude trough is
located along 70W supporting scattered showers. Both of these
troughs are moving about 25 kt westward. Over the next 24 hours
the trades will decrease slightly as high pressure to the north
weakens.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers will continue to occur over the windward
locations of the island in the trade wind flow through at least
Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough over the central Atlantic supports a cold front
that extends into our area of discussion near 31N31W to 26N47W
then is stationary to 22N69W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
of either side of this front. Otherwise, a 1031 mb high centered
near Bermuda dominates the remainder of the central and western
Atlantic. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N16W to
24N30W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Over the
next 24 hours the stationary front over the central and western
Atlantic will dissipate. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
over the offshore waters of northern Florida as a cold front
approaches the region from the west.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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