[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...East Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is forecast over the far eastern Atlantic starting in
about 12 hours. The outlook from METEO-FRANCE for the forecast
period 03/1200 UTC to 04/1200 UTC consists of persistence of SW
gale in IRVING near 33N31W. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High
Seas Forecast product that is listed under the following links:
MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on
the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across southwest Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N17W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 03N33W to the coast of South America near 00N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 20W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends over the northwest Gulf of Mexico from
22N97W to 29N91W. Isolated showers are observed along the front
mainly north of 27N. Scatterometer data depicts light and variable
winds across the western Gulf while gentle to moderate winds are near
the front and the eastern half of the basin. Expect in 24 hours
for the cold front to continue moving east with convection mostly
over the eastern Gulf. Also expect light to gentle southerly
return flow over the SE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored over the west
Atlantic north of the area. The pressure gradient generated by the
interaction of this high and lower pressures prevailing north of
South America is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south
of Jamaica between 72W-80W. Fresh trades prevail across the
remainder of the basin. Strong subsidence prevails across the
basin supporting fair weather.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island. Expect little change
over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the western Atlantic. A frontal
system was analyzed as a weakening stationary front from 21N70W to
21N60W then as a cold front from that point to 24N45W to 31N25W.
Isolated showers are observed along the cold front. A diffluent
flow aloft supports scattered showers south of 20 between 35W-49W.
To the east, please refer to the section above about the gale
force winds expected across the far eastern Atlantic. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the cold front to continue moving east with
isolated showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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