[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
552 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient generated by the interaction of the broad
area of high pressure that prevails across the Atlantic and the
low pressure centers that across the eastern CONUS support gale-
force winds mainly north of 29N and west of 77W. These conditions
will prevail though the next 6 hours. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the region
and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean during the next
several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia through the early morning hours. Model guidance
show seas building to 8 to 12 ft over the region with the
strongest winds. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 09N13W to
05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 04S38W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails within 300 nm south of the
boundaries between 10W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf extending from 29N97W
to 30N93W. No significant convection is related to this boundary
at this time. Latest observations indicate the development of
patches of fog over the coastal waters north of 27N and west of
88W due to a moist and warm air spreading over relatively cooler
waters. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the basin with
fair weather. Gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are noted
over the northern half of the basin while southeasterly winds
prevail elsewhere. Expect for the fog to dissipate in the late
morning hours. The cold front will move quickly across the basin,
pushing through South Florida by this afternoon. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front, with seas
building to 8 ft. By Friday, a high pressure will move into the
western Atlantic, extending a ridge once again across the Gulf
region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please, see the Special Features section above for details.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the
central and east Caribbean while lighter winds are noted over the
western Caribbean mainly west of 80W. A fast-moving cold front
will reach western Cuba and the northwest Caribbean by this
evening with convection. The front will move across Cuba and the
west Caribbean on Friday while gradually weakening. As a high
pressure build in the wake of the front, expect increasing
northeasterly winds across this area. Shallow moisture embedded
in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing
isolated to scattered passing showers through the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. By late
Friday, an approaching frontal boundary will increase the
likelihood of showers across the island as well as the adjacent
waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale-force winds are forecast across the west Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A cold front extends from
32N65W to 27N68W with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms affecting the waters between 63W-69W. A surface
trough extends south of this front from 26N70W to 23N73W. No
significant convection is related to this trough currently. A
1035 mb surface high is centered near 35N39W and extends a ridge
across the majority of the forecast area. South of the ridge,
mainly fresh trade winds are noted across the central Atlantic,
particularly south of 20N, and east of the Lesser Antilles. These
winds are expected to persist through the day. A strong cold
front will move rapidly across the western Atlantic today, and
reach from 31N61W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba by
Friday morning. The cold front currently near 30N65W will continue
moving east with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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