[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the region
and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean during the next
several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force within about 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning
hours. Model guidance shows seas building to 8 to 12 ft over the
region with the strongest winds. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 09N14W to
04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N28W to 02S44W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the boundaries
between 10W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the entire region with fair weather.
Latest observations indicate the development of patches of fog
over the coastal waters west of 88W due to a moist and warm air
spreading over relatively cooler waters. Gentle to moderate
southwesterly winds are noted over the northern half of the Gulf
while southeasterly winds are seen elsewhere. The ridge will
weaken tonight as a cold front enters across the northwest
waters. This front will move quickly across the basin, reaching
from central Florida to northeast Mexico by this morning, then
pushing through south Florida during the afternoon hours. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front,
with seas building to 6-8 ft. Winds are forecast to quickly veer
to the northeast by late Thursday as the high pressure behind the
front moves east over eastern CONUS. By late Friday, the high
pressure will move into the western Atlantic, extending a ridge
across the Gulf region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please, see the Special Features section above for details.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the
central and east Caribbean while lighter winds are noted over the
western Caribbean mainly west of 80W. A fast moving cold front
will reach western Cuba and the northwest Caribbean by Thursday
evening with convection. The front will move across the remainder
of Cuba on Friday while gradually weakening. As a high pressure
build in the wake of the front, expect increasing northeasterly
winds across the west Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the
trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. By late
Friday, an approaching frontal boundary will increase the
likelihood of showers.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1035 mb surface high centered near 36N41W extends a ridge
across the majority of the forecast area. Winds have increase to
20-30 kt just east of northern Florida due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and a low pressure located near Cape
Hatteras. South of the ridge, mainly fresh trade winds are noted
across the central Atlantic, particularly south of 20N, and east
of the Lesser Antilles. These winds are expected to persist
through the day. A surface trough extends from 28N73W to 24N73W. A
band of moderate convection is ahead of this trough prevailing
north of 26N between 64W-69W. A surface trough extends from 28N73W
to 24N73W. from 31N71W to 27N73W. The trough is a reflection of
mid-level trough that is moving eastward north of Hispaniola
causing the ridge to retreat eastward. A strong cold front will
move rapidly across the western Atlantic today, and reach from
31N61W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Friday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net