[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough is along 31N65W 29N70W. A new cold front is
approaching from the NW. Currently: SW gale-force winds and sea
heights reaching 9 feet, are to the north of 30N between 67W and
80W.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 12-hour forecast, that starts at 09/1200 UTC, consists of NE
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet,
from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border section of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N20W, crossing the equator along 29W, to 02S33W.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong to the south of the line 08N13W 07N20W 03N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep-layer trough is moving through the Carolinas and the rest
of the SE part of the U.S.A. and its coastal waters of the
Atlantic Ocean. The trough is pushing a cold front, that is moving
through SE Georgia, the Florida Big Bend, the north-central Gulf
of Mexico, into NE coastal Mexico. High level moisture is confined
to the Gulf of Mexico from 27N northward. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, elsewhere.
Scattered to broken multilayered clouds mark the cold front, in
an east-to-west line in the central Gulf waters, and then
southwestward along the Mexico coast. Convective precipitation:
in the Atlantic Ocean...isolated moderate from 31N to 32N between
74W and 75W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVAF.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in the Tampa/St.
Petersburg metropolitan area, in parts of the Ft.Myers
metropolitan area, and in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
15N southward from Central America eastward. High level clouds are
being pushed by the upper level winds.

Middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow moves through the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The westerly wind flow eventually
blends in/merges with the cyclonic wind flow that accompanies the
Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola trough.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the rest of the area, elsewhere, away from the
anticyclonic wind flow.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 08/1200 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 1.19 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica; 0.23 in Trinidad, 0.03 in Curacao; and 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is present across
the area, with the Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola trough. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across
Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows SW-to-W wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will be to
the NW of the area at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that a col point will be on
top of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period.
Hispaniola will be in the middle of an east-to-west oriented
ridge and a north-to-south oriented trough. The col situation
will continue for the first 12 hours or so. A trough will move
across Hispaniola, from the NW, to the Mona Passage, by the end of
day one. N-to-NE wind flow, in a ridge, will cover the area during
day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an
anticyclonic circulation center will start on top of Hispaniola,
and then it will move westward, giving NE wind flow to the area
for the rest of day one. Expect more NE wind flow during day two,
with Hispaniola on the southern side of an east-to-west oriented
Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida ridge.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 28N67W to
23N69W beyond Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N to 29N between
60W and 67W.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N14W to
22N20W 17N38W and 11N49W. 21N25W and 16N42W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1036 mb high pressure center that
is near 36N36W, through 32N44W, to 29N51W, 25N55W, to 21N66W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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