[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 42-hour forecast consists of NE to E gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N
between 74W and 76W.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coast of Liberia near 05N10W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 05N17W, and the equator along
30W, and to 01S31W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward from 51W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level-to-upper level trough has moved across the Gulf of
Mexico, from west-to-east. The trough now extends from the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
A second middle level-to-upper level trough is in inland, moving
through the Mississippi River Valley. A cold front is inland,
associated with that trough.

A surface ridge passes through 30N80W in the Atlantic Ocean,
southward across Florida, to 20N82W in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, to 10N83W in eastern Costa Rica.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KXIH and KVAF.

IFR: KBQX.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KVBS, KHHV, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KEIR,
KSPR, KGRY, KIKT, KVOA, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

It is possible that severe weather may occur in parts of the
U.S.A. coastal plains states this afternoon. Please consult
watches and warnings from local NWS offices.

TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco. IFR in Laredo. MVFR from Pearland and
Sugar Land to Beaumont/Port Arthur to Robstown. LOUISIANA:
MVFR/IFR from Baton Rouge southward and southwestward. Rainshowers
and thunder from Baton Rouge to the areas that are around Lake
Pontchartrain. IFR/MVFR in other parts of the SE coastal plains.
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR, and rain and thunder, from Natchez-to-
Hattiesburg southward. ALABAMA: MVFR from Dothan to Evergreen.
rain and thunder in southern sections/coastal sections that are
between Mississippi and Florida. FLORIDA: MVFR from Pensacola to
Milton. MVFR in the NW part of the Panama City metropolitan area
and Apalachicola.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough extends from NW Cuba to the
northern coastal areas of Colombia. SE wind flow from 600 mb to
800 mb covers the Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola southeastward.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the entire area.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 07/1200 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.27 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico, 0.13 in Guadeloupe, 0.02 in Curacao, St. Thomas, and
Trinidad.

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area.
SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.
Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling
1800 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that gentle anticyclonic
wind flow and SW wind flow will be moving across the area during
the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that
anticyclonic wind flow, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola
east-to-west oriented ridge will cover the area for the first 12
hours of day one. A trough will move to Hispaniola and become
stationary for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE-to-S wind flow will move
across the area for the first 12 hours. Expect anticyclonic wind
flow for the rest of the time, with an anticyclonic circulation
center remaining across Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N50W to
24N58W. One cold front passes through 32N43W, to 29N47W and
26N53W. A second cold front passes through 32N52W to 31N54W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north of
25N53W beyond 32N28W.

Isolated moderate convective precipitation covers the Atlantic
Ocean from the northern coastal areas of the Dominican Republic,
near 20N, to 26N, between 66W and 73W. This precipitation was
associated with an earlier surface trough. The surface trough did
not show up in the scatterometer wind data that were available at
the time of the 07/1200 UTC map analysis.

A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 29N57W. A 1026 mb high
pressure center is near 34N61W. A surface ridge extends from the
area of the two high pressure centers to 30N80W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 26N northward
between Africa and 37W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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