[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Strong east to northeast winds in the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia will see winds pulsing back to minimal gale
force in about 36 hours Wednesday night, with max seas building
to 12-13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coast of Liberia near 05N10W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 05N18W to 02S32W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the
the ITCZ axis between 14W and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Active convection and severe weather occurring in the Gulf coast
from southern Mississippi and Alabama to the western panhandle of
Florida is also producing non-severe thunderstorms in the far
northern waters of the basin between 85W and 90W. A ridge axis
extends across the central Gulf of Mexico from central Florida to
southern Mexico. High pressure centered in the western Atlantic
is shifting eastward. Showers are expected to move east into the
big bend of Florida overnight, with little change elsewhere. A
fast moving cold front will move into the northern Gulf Thursday
morning, and sweep southeast of the basin Thursday night. High
pressure will build behind the front over the NE Gulf Friday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trade winds across the southern Caribbean will strengthen
Wednesday night, and persist into the weekend. Please refer to
the special features section for more details. A fast moving cold
front will move into the NW Caribbean Thursday night, then weaken
through Friday night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are
expected elsewhere across the Caribbean through Sat. Fresh trades
across tropical waters east of the Lesser Antilles will strengthen
Wednesday as the Atlantic ridge shifts northeastward, tightening
the gradient in the west-central Atlantic.

...HISPANIOLA...

Clouds and showers associated with a trough north of Hispaniola
along 72W will gradually diminish tonight and Wednesday as the
trough shifts northwest away from the area. Expect mainly fair
weather with a few daytime showers over interior terrain Thursday
and Friday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure centered near 33N58W extends a ridge westward across
central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level trough moving
through the southeastern U.S will push eastward through Thursday,
causing the ridge to retreat into the west-central Atlantic. The
trailing end of a weak cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N52W.
The front will become diffuse through Wednesday. A stronger cold
front will move rapidly across the western Atlantic Thursday, and
reach from 30N60W to central Bahamas and central Cuba Fri morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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