[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 AM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force east to northeast winds are expected to develop tonight
just north of the coast of Colombia. These winds will diminish in
the morning hours. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N12W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Isolated moderate convection is
observed within 200 nm on either side of the boundary between
20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis extends across the basin from a 1024 mb high
pressure centered across the west Atlantic. With this, a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the whole
area. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale winds today across a portion of the SW
Caribbean will pulse to gale-force tonight near the coast of
Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
details. The remainder of the basin is expected to remain
relatively tranquil into Tuesday as dry air and subsidence
prevails aloft, as noted on water vapor imagery. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere, with little change expected
through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow
will continue to affect the island overnight. A surface trough
northeast of the area will approach the eastern part of the
island Tuesday with increasing showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of weakening frontal boundaries extend across the northern
portion of the basin. The first was analyzed as a cold front from
29N69W to 31N64W. No significant convection is related to this
front. The second front extends east of a dissipating 1025 mb
surface high from 28N53W to a 1022 mb low centered near 33N46W.
Isolated showers prevail along this front. A surface trough
extends from 24N67W to 20N68W with isolated showers affecting the
adjacent waters north of the Mona Passage. A surface ridge
extends across the remainder of the basin with fair weather.
Expect for the fronts to dissipate during the next 24 hours.
Surface ridge will prevail across the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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