[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force east to northeast winds have ended this morning along
the coast of Colombia. However, this area will see pulsing of the
wind field back to minimal gale force tonight. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N14W to
02S44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 03N between
18W and 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis extends across the Gulf of Mexico from a weak high
pressure centered near Jacksonville Florida to Veracruz Mexico.
This is supporting light to gentle winds over the northeastern
Gulf and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Gulf.
Generally fair weather is occurring under this ridge. During the
next 24 hours the center of the high will shift east and become
absorbed by ridging over the western Atlantic, allowing southerly
winds to increase slightly over the basin through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale winds today across a portion of the SW
Caribbean will pulse to gale-force tonight near the coast of
Colombia. Please refer to the special features section for more
details. The rest of the basin is expected to remain relatively
tranquil into Tuesday as mostly dry air and subsidence prevails
aloft as noted on water vapor imagery. A few showers are possible
across eastern waters and portions of the western Caribbean south
of 18N west of 76W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail,
with little change expected through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow
will continue to affect the island overnight. A surface trough
east of the area near Puerto Rico will cross the eastern part of
the island Tuesday with increasing showers expected in the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

All previous frontal boundaries have become diffuse over forecast
waters or moved north of 30N as a warm front. Shower activity has
decreased as well. A surface trough extends from 24N66W to the
northern coast of Puerto Rico. Scattered trade wind showers are
within 120 nm of this trough. High pressure centered north of the
area dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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