[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force this
evening...and continue into Sunday morning. Winds are forecast
to once again reach gale force Sunday night into Monday morning.
See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from the African
coast near 05N09W to the South American coast near 02S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the
ITCZ axis between 10W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 2100 UTC, a cold front extends across the eastern half of the
basin from Fort Myers Florida to 25N86W. A warm front continues
to the Texas coast near 28N96W to a surface low near 27N98W.
Surface observations from southern Texas indicate widespread low
clouds, stratiform precipitation and fog or hazy conditions.
Similar conditions are also evident from satellite imagery along
the eastern coast of Mexico associated with a surface trough and
stationary frontal boundary from 26N98W to 22N98.5W to 19N96W.
Strong subsidence covers the Gulf east of 95W. Expect the cold
front to extend from southern Florida to the northern Yucatan on
Sunday, with showers over the Yucatan Channel. Also expect high
pressure ridging to dominate the majority of the Gulf with some
residual surface moisture over the far western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning is in effect overnight near the northern coast of
Colombia, see special features section above. 15 to 25 kt trade
winds prevail elsewhere over most of the Caribbean. Scattered
showers are moving across Honduras, and from the Gulf of Honduras
into southern Belize. Low clouds and stratiform showers are
noted inland over eastern coastal areas of Costa Rica and Panama.
Some isolated trade wind showers are moving toward the southern
Windward Islands. Strong subsidence covers the region, and little
change is expected through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over the interior central terrain. Mostly
fair weather prevails over the remainder of the Island. A few
trade wind showers may move across the island during the next 24
hours.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 32N60W to
southern Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are north of the
front in broken multi-layered cloudiness. A pre-frontal trough
and associated convective activity extends from 30N59W to 25N70W.
The front will graduallyly weaken through Sunday, and extend from
31N44W to 25N59W, become stationary to 27N69W. Elsewhere, a broad
ridge of high pressure centered near 30N28W dominates the eastern
and central Atlantic. Expect the high over the eastern Atlantic
to move rapidly northeastward toward Portugal through Sunday.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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