[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force this
evening...and continue to Sunday morning. Winds are forecast
back to gale Sunday evening to Monday morning. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from the African
coast near 05N08W to 03N20W to 01N30W to the South American
coast near 03S42W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-06N
between 07W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 15W-29W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 29W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Fort Pierce Florida
near 28N80W to Tampa Florida near 27N82W to the central Gulf of
Mexico near 26N89W. A stationary front continues to 27N91W. A
warm front continues further to the NW Gulf near 28N94W to
Corpus Christi Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers are over the
W Gulf W of 95W to include the western portion of the Bay of
Campeche where a surface trough extends from 20N94W to S Mexico
near 17N94W. 10-15 kt NE winds are N of the cold front. Mostly
fair weather is over S Florida and the SE Gulf S of the front.
In the upper levels, a short wave trough is over the Bay of
Campeche. Zonal flow is over the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico. Strong subsidence covers the Gulf E of 95W. Expect in 24
hours for the cold front to extend from S Florida to the N
Yucatan Peninsula with showers over the Yucatan Channel. Also
expect high pressure ridging to dominate the majority of the
Gulf with residual surface moisture over the far W Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is forecast this evening for the coast of N Colombia. See
above. The remainder of the Caribbean 15-25 kt tradewinds.
Scattered showers are noted inland over Belize, Guatemala,
Honduras, N Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Scattered showers are
also over the Caribbean from SW Haiti to Jamaica to the coast of
E Honduras near 15N84W. More scattered showers are over the N
Leeward Islands, and the S Windward Islands. In the upper
levels, a short wave trough is over the far south central
Caribbean. Zonal flow is over the remainder of the Caribbean.
Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean and Central
America. Little change is expected through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over SW Haiti. Mostly fair weater is over
the remainder of the Island. More showers are expected to advect
over the island from Puerto Rico, in the tradewind flow, over
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to 29N75W to
Fort Pierce Florida near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within
120 nm N of front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are NW
of front. A prefrontal trough extends from 32N59W to 27N65W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-31N between 59W-61W.
Scattered showers are with 60 nm of the remainder of the trough.
A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 29N31W.
Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from 31N46W to
26N60W to 25N70W with showers. Also expect the surface high over
the E Atlantic to move rapidly NE to 35N15W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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