[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
524 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force
Saturday night...and continue through Sunday morning. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N18W
to 01N27W to 01N35W to the Equator near 40W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of 05N between 10W-31W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 01N-12N between 32W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the NE CONUS this morning supporting a cold front extending
across the northern Florida peninsula near 30N81W SW to 27N90W to
27N92W then becoming stationary to the Texas coast near 26N97W.
Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the
front E of 95W...with isolated showers and tstms occurring S of
27N W of 95W in the vicinity of the front and in close proximity
to a surface trough analyzed from 24N99W to 20N96W. Otherwise...
mostly moderate to fresh N-NE winds are prevailing E of 90W and
moderate to fresh E-NE winds are prevailing W of 90W on the
southern periphery of surface ridging across the Gulf basin
anchored by a 1035 mb high centered across the Ohio River valley
near 38N87W. The ridge will be slow to drift E-SE through Monday
as southerly return flow re-establishes itself across the Gulf
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the near gale to gale force winds expected across a
portion of the SW Caribbean Saturday night into Sunday
morning...the remainder of the basin is expected to remain
relatively tranquil as mostly dry air and subsidence prevail as
noted on water vapor imagery. Only a few isolated showers are
possible across the Lesser Antilles and eastern waters this
morning and across the western Caribbean from 15N-18N between
75W-84W in an area of maximum low-level moisture convergence.
Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 80W...and
moderate NE winds prevail W of 80W. Little change is expected
through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow
will continue to affect the island through Saturday. Conditions
are expected to remain stable overall as dry air and subsidence
prevails aloft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the NE CONUS that supports a broad area of low pressure
across the NW North Atlc focused on a 1007 mb low centered near
38N60W. The associated cold front extends SW to the Florida coast
near 30N81W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either
side of the front remaining mostly N of 30N. To the SE...a
surface trough is analyzed from the central Bahamas near 23N76W
to 27N70W providing focus for isolated showers and possible
isolated tstms from 23N-28N between 70W-76W. The cold front is
expected to move SE and S of 30N on Saturday introducing fresh to
strong northerly winds with the frontal passage. By Saturday
night the fresh to strong wind field is expected to diminish as
high pressure re-establishes itself across the SW North Atlc
region. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028
mb high centered near 29N37W. The ridge is forecast to begin
sliding eastward Saturday night into Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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