[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050510
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1210 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force
tonight...and continue through Sunday morning. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
05N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N13W
to 02N21W to 01N36W to the Equator near 44W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is S of 04N between 09W-17W.
Scattered moderate convection is S of 03N between 17W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Middle to upper level flow remains zonal over the Gulf this
evening...however a weak frontal boundary extends as a cold front
from the southern Florida peninsula near 27N82W to 25N83W to
25N90W then becomes a warm front to the Texas coast near 29N96W.
The warm front extends into a 1019 mb low centered near Corpus
Christi with surface troughing extending southward along the
eastern coast of Mexico. The cold front remains precipitation-
free...while isolated showers are occurring N of 23N W of 93W in
association with the low pressure area and warm front. The
remainder of the basin in under the influence of the southern
periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered
across the Carolinas. Mostly gentle to moderate E-NE winds are
prevailing E of 90W and moderate E-SE winds are prevailing W of
90W. The ridge will be slow to drift E-SE through Monday as
southerly return flow re-establishes itself early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the near gale to gale force winds expected across a
portion of the SW Caribbean tonight into Sunday morning...the
remainder of the basin is expected to remain relatively tranquil
as mostly dry air and subsidence prevails aloft as noted on water
vapor imagery. Only a few isolated showers are possible across
the Windward Islands and eastern waters this evening and across
the western Caribbean along the coasts of Costa Rica...Panama...
and Honduras. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail with
little change expected through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow
will continue to affect the island through Sunday. Conditions are
expected to remain stable overall as dry air and strong
subsidence prevails aloft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Primarily zonal middle to upper level flow prevails over the SW
North Atlc region this evening...while water vapor imagery
indicates a troughing N of the discussion area in the vicinity of
38N54W. This troughing supports a cold front extending through
32N56W SW to 27N67W then W to the NW Bahamas and Florida peninsula
near 27N80W. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 32N53W to
28N60W to 25N70W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within
60 nm either side of the pre-frontal trough...while isolated
showers are also occurring within 90 nm either side of the cold
front. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1030
mb high centered near 30N27W. The ridge is forecast to begin
sliding E-NE and merge with another high pressure centering SW of
the Iberian peninsula Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net