[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N10W to
02N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 02N18W to
03N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ
between 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure of 1023 mb continues to meander over the
northeastern Gulf centered near 28N87W. With this, fair weather
conditions prevail across most of the basin with a gentle
anticyclonic flow. A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf,
extending from 30N86W to 25N98W. Moderate to fresh north to
northeast winds are north of the front. Latest surface
observations are reporting fog mainly north of the front with
isolated showers. A thermal surface trough extends across the Bay
of Campeche from 23N94W to 19N94W. Isolated showers prevail in the
vicinity of this trough mainly along and west of 94W. Expect for
the front drift across the Gulf waters. Another cold front will
enter the basin this weekend enhancing winds/seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the high pressure north of the
region and the climatological low pressure over Colombia has been
supporting fresh to strong easterly winds over the south Central
Caribbean. Winds near the coast of Colombia have been
pulsing to near gale force each night. These conditions are
expected to continue through the weekend. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Dry air and
subsidence from aloft is inhibiting any deep convection across the
whole area. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers in the trade wind flow will continue to affect
the island through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1022 mb high centered near 28N76W. A surface trough was analyzed
south of this ridge extending from 25N75W to 22N77W. Another
surface trough extends from 30N61W to 25N69W. Isolated showers are
observed along these troughs. A broad area of high pressure
extends across the remainder of the basin centered near 28N33W. Fresh
to strong trades are covering much of the tropical central
Atlantic with seas of 9 to 12 ft. Over the next 24 hours, a cold
front willenter the west Atlantic supporting fresh to strong
northerly winds north of 29N. These winds will spread east
reaching to near 65W by late Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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