[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force in a
small area centered near 11.5N75W Saturday night, and continue
through Sunday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N18W
to 00N31W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident
along the ITCZ between 22W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee
to 27N94W, then stationary across northeast Mexico from 24N98W to
31N105W. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are north of
the front. Strong high pressure north of the front across the
southeast U.S. is supporting moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds in the northern Gulf. A thermal surface trough extends south
of 23N along 94W into the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows
shallow shower activity west of the trough to the coast of Mexico.
Expect the front to sag southward across the eastern Gulf through
Saturday night, while the western portion lifts northward as a
warm front. High pressure will prevail over the northeast Gulf
Sunday through Monday night. A strong cold front will enter the
northern Gulf Wednesday morning with rapidly building winds/seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the high pressure north of the
region and a nearly stationary low pressure over Colombia is
supporting fresh to strong easterly winds over the south-central
Caribbean. Winds near the coast of Colombia have been pulsing to
near gale force each night. These conditions are expected to
continue through Wednesday morning. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Dry air and subsidence
from aloft is inhibiting any deep convection across the whole
area. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers in the trade wind flow will continue to affect
the island through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends across the central Atlantic from the coast
of Africa to the Florida peninsula, anchored by a 1027 mb high
centered near 28N35W. A weak surface trough is analyzed south of
this ridge from 25N75W to 22N77W. Another surface trough extends
from 30N60W to 26N69W. Few showers are observed near the troughs.
Fresh to strong trades are covering much of the tropical central
Atlantic with 9 to 12 ft seas. During the next 24 to 48 hours, a
cold front will shift eastward north of the area, with a trailing
portion of the front moving across waters north of 29N supporting
fresh northerly through late Saturday night. High pressure will
prevail across the remainder of the forecast area through Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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