[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N19W
to the Equator near 33W to the coast of South America near
02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N between
20W and 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1023 mb continues to meander over the
northeastern Gulf near 29N85W, supporting fair conditions and
light to gentle winds over the northeastern Gulf. A cold front is
over the northwestern Gulf and extends from 30N92W to 26N97W.
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are north of the front.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm southeast of the front. A
thermal surface trough extends from 23N96W to 18N94W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with this trough
continue south of 23N between 88W and 98W. Other than the winds
behind the front and over the NE Gulf, mainly moderate to fresh
easterly winds cover the Gulf basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region
and climatological low pressure over Colombia has been supporting
fresh to strong east to northeast winds over the south Central
Caribbean for the past several days. Winds near the coast of
Colombia have been pulsing to near gale force each night.
Moderate to fresh east to northeast winds dominate the remainder
of the Caribbean. Dry air and subsidence from aloft is inhibiting
any deep convection across the basin. The only notable
precipitation is associated with patches of trade wind showers
streaming westward across the Caribbean, as well as showers along
the coast of Central America. Little change is expected over the
next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers in the trade wind flow will continue to affect
the mainly the southern and eastern portions of the island through
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three surface troughs cover the SW N Atlantic this morning. One
trough extends from 25N76W to 22N77W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the trough axis. Another trough, formerly a
stationary front, extends from 30N62W to 24N71W. This trough is
interacting with an upper level disturbance to support a broad
area of showers within 120 nm of either side of a line from
31N61W to 25N72W. Isolated moderate convection with thunderstorms
are north of 28N between 58W and 65W. A third trough extends from
28N58W to 23N61W. No significant convection is noted with this
trough. A 1028 mb area of high pressure centered near 28N35W
dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic with
fresh to strong trades covering much of the tropical central
Atlantic. These winds support seas of 9 to 12 ft. Over the next 24
hours a cold front will exit north Florida and Georgia, supporting
fresh to strong northerly winds north of 29N spreading east from
the coast late tonight, reaching to near 65W by Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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