[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 01 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N18W
to the Equator near 40W to the coast of South America near
02S45W. Isolated scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 06W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC a 1022 mb high is centered over central Florida
near 29N83W with 5-10 anticyclonic winds and fair weather. The W
Gulf has a slightly tighter surface pressure gradient resulting
in 10-15 kt SE flow. In the upper levels, WSW flow is over the
Gulf. An area of upper level moisture is over the SE Gulf. The
remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours
for the surface high to drift NW to the NE Gulf. 5-15 kt
anticyclonic flow will then cover the entire Gulf. Scattered
showers will be possible over the southern Bay of Campeche,
while, fair weather will persist elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are over
Honduras, the Gulf of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Similar
showers are over Costa Rica. More scattered showers are over
Hispaniola, the Leeward Islands, and the Windward Islands. In
the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean with very
strong subsidence. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola mostly due to
moisture in the tradewind flow. Expect little change over the
next 24 hours.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N62W. A stationary
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 25N70W to the
S Bahamas near 22N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 29N38W. In the
upper levels, the central Atlantic cold front is losing upper
level support, and is thus forecast over the next 24 hours to
dissipate. A surface trough will remain over the central
Atlantic from 31N61W to 27N70W to 25N74W with scattered showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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