[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1202 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N19W to
01N33W to the Equator near 40W. Scattered moderate convection is
S of 07N between the Prime Meridian and 12W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is S of 04N between 24W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
West-southwesterly middle to upper level flow prevails over the
Gulf basin this afternoon as a trough axis extends from over the
lower Mississippi River valley W-SW to over central Mexico near
24N104W. As the upper level feature approaches...only scattered
cloudiness is noted on visible satellite imagery across the west-
central Gulf waters from 22N-26N W of 90W. Otherwise...the
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered across the central Florida
peninsula near 28N82W. Mostly light to gentle anticyclonic winds
are noted E of 90W while gentle to moderate southerly winds are
occurring W of 90W. The high center is forecast to remain nearly
stationary across the NE Gulf and Florida peninsula through Friday
with generally gentle to moderate easterly anticyclonic flow
expected. In addition...occasional fresh easterly winds will be
possible in the vicinity of the Florida Straits region Thursday
night through Saturday night as the pressure gradient strengthens
slightly.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Mostly zonal upper level flow prevails over much of the Caribbean
this afternoon. Along with relatively dry air and subsidence...the
basin is experiencing overall tranquil conditions. A few isolated
showers are occurring across the basin...however they continue to
be quick-moving within generally moderate to fresh trades. Slightly
stronger trades are noted in close proximity to the coast of
Colombia S of 13N between 74W-79W. Little change in the synoptic
weather pattern is expected through the remainder of the week and
upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening as
shallow low-level moisture and cloudiness moves across the island.
In addition...a generally benign and dry westerly upper level
flow pattern is in place over the island. Little change is
expected through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates very broad middle to upper level
troughing over the eastern CONUS and SW North Atlc region with the
base remaining along 30N. Mid-level energy sags S with a short
wave noted in the vicinity of 28N78W. The weak upper level
dynamics support a stationary front extending from 32N46W SW to
the SE Bahamas near 22N73W. Isolated showers are occurring within
120 nm either side of the boundary. Ridging continues to build in
behind the front as a 1025 mb high centered across the central
Florida peninsula and another 1025 mb high centered near 29N71W.
Farther east...across the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc...a surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered near 29N38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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