[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
02N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone begins near 02N17W and
then continues along 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm N
of the ITCZ between 17W-41W. Similar convection is from 0N-06N E
of 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface high pressure anchored over the central Atlantic
extends a ridge axis SW across Florida to a 1023 mb high near
28N83W...then across the remainder Gulf of Mexico. Light S-SE
winds cover the basin, except for the NW waters where winds are
moderate due to a tighter pressure gradient with a low centered
over Texas. Weather is generally fair being supported by low to
upper level dry air. Shallow moisture over the far W Gulf support
isolated showers off the coast of Mexico. The center of high
pressure will remain nearly stationary in the NE Gulf today and
then will move to SW N Atlantic waters Friday morning. This will
allow for mainly gentle to light E winds across the central basin
while a cold front enter the N-NW Gulf. The front will slowly move
S-SE, but will prevail across the northern Gulf waters through
Saturday morning when it will become stationary before dissipating
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient has slightly relaxed in the central
Caribbean, thus resulting in fresh to strong NE winds from 10N to
14N between 73W and 78W and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere.
CIRA LPW imagery continue to show patches of low level moisture
moving across the north-central, NE and SW Caribbean allowing for
scattered to isolated showers mainly across Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico southern adjacent waters. Water vapor imagery show strong dry
air subsidence elsewhere what is supporting fair weather. Winds in
the south-central Caribbean will increase to near gale force winds
early Thu and Friday mornings and possibly continuing into the
weekend. Otherwise, showers are expected in the NW Caribbean
Friday in association with the westward moving moist airmass
currently in the NE and north-central basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to isolated showers continue across Hispaniola and
adjacent waters due to shallow moisture in the tradewind flow.
Showers are forecast to decrease by Thu morning then resume Friday
due to trailing shallow moisture currently over the NE Caribbean
Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

With lack of support aloft, a stationary front extending from
30N53W to 26N65W to the Southern Bahamas near 22N74W continues to
weaken. Shallow moisture associated with this front support
scattered to isolated showers across the Bahamas and within 120 nm
W of the frontal boundary. The remainder basin is under the
influence of broad surface high pressure being anchored by a 1029
mb high near 29N37W. The front is forecast to become a surface
trough by this afternoon. The next cold front will enter SW N Atlc
waters early Saturday morning with strong winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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