[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
520 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N16W to 01N25W to 01N40W to the Equator near 45W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 29W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Tropical moisture and cloudiness continues to stream E-NE over the
northern periphery of a broad middle to upper level ridge
anchored over the southern Gulf and Cuba this morning. Weak
progressive shortwave energy continues to support a 1023 mb low
centered across the NE Gulf waters near 27N87W with a stationary
front extending E-NE to 28N84W and W from the low center to 27N94W
then S to 22N96W and intersecting the Mexico coast near Tuxpan.
Low stratus and possible isolated showers are generally noted on
satellite imagery north and west of the frontal boundary. High
pressure lies to the north across much of the Great Lakes and
Lower Mississippi River valley generating moderate to occasional
fresh NE winds N of the front and fresh to strong N winds W of
96W. The low is expected to become diffuse Thursday across the NE
Gulf with the high building in from the N-NW and the remaining
pressure gradient generating moderate to fresh E-NE winds through
Friday night. The next strong cold front is expected to emerge off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Rather tranquil skies prevail across the Caribbean basin this
morning with the main focus being fresh to strong trades noted on
recent scatterometer data generally between 69W-79W...strongest
within 120 nm off the coast of Colombia. Otherwise...moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Little change is expected during
the next couple of days.

...HISPANIOLA...
Clear skies prevail this morning as conditions are expected to
remain fair through Thursday night. Mostly dry and stable
conditions are expected to persist during the next couple of days
under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge and
associated strong subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N70W extending SW
into a 1022 mb low centered near 29N79W. The cold front continues
to the Florida peninsula near 26N81W. Mainly low stratus with
embedded isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery along and
N of the front. To the SE of the front...isolated showers are
occurring in association with a pair of surface troughs analyzed
in an area between 67W-76W. Otherwise...the remainder of central
and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1030 mb high centered S of the Azores near 34N28W.
One exception within the southwestern periphery of the surface
ridge is a middle to upper level low noted on water vapor imagery
near 26N39W generating scattered showers and possible isolated
tstms from 21N-28N between 34W-42W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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