[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1203 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
04N16W to 04N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 04N22W to 04N26W to 01N37W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-10N between 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Tropical moisture and cloudiness continues to stream E-NE over the
northern periphery of a broad middle to upper level ridge
anchored over the southern Gulf and Cuba this evening. Weak
shortwave energy continues to support a 1020 mb low centered
across the NE Gulf waters near 28N88W with a stationary front
extending to the Florida peninsula near 27N82W and a cold front
extending SW from the low center to 24N95W to the Mexico coast
near Tuxpan. Low stratus and possible isolated showers are
generally noted on satellite imagery N of the frontal boundary.
High pressure lies to the north across much of the Great Lakes and
Lower Mississippi River valley inducing moderate to fresh NE winds
N of the front and fresh to strong N winds N of 21N W of 96W. The
low is expected to become diffuse Thursday across the NE Gulf
with the high building in from the N-NW and the remaining pressure
gradient generating moderate to fresh E-NE winds through Friday
night. The next strong cold front is expected to emerge off the
Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Rather tranquil skies prevail across the Caribbean basin this
evening with the main focus being fresh to strong trades noted on
recent scatterometer data generally between 69W-78W... strongest
within 120 nm off the coast of Colombia. Otherwise... moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Little change is expected during
the next couple of days.

...HISPANIOLA...
Clear skies prevail this evening as conditions remain fair for
the overnight hours into Thursday. Mostly dry and stable
conditions are expected to persist during the next couple of days
under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge and
associated strong subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N73W extending SW
to the Florida peninsula near 27N80W. Mainly low stratus with
embedded isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery along
and N of the front. To the SE of the front...isolated showers are
occurring E of the Bahamas from 24N-27N between 69W-77W.
Otherwise...a stationary front extends along 31N between 56W-66W
providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring
N of 30N between 53W-70W. The remainder of central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032
mb high centered S of the Azores near 34N26W. One exception within
the southwestern periphery of the surface ridge is a middle to
upper level low noted on water vapor imagery near 26N38W
generating widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms
from 21N-28N between 34W-42W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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