[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along 04N through
10W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N10W to
04N34W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N
between 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1020 mb low pressure persists across the north-central
Gulf and now is located near 28N88W. A cold front extends
southwest from the low to 25N97W. A warm front extends eastward
from the low to 28N83W then transitions into a cold front and
extends across the Florida Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between the low/front and strong high pressure north of the area
is resulting in fresh to strong northeast winds behind the
frontal boundary, while gentle to moderate southeasterly winds
prevail south of the front. Moderate to locally fresh
northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data near the
Yucatan Peninsula likely associated with a thermal trough.
The low/fronts will dissipate during the next 24 hours. High
pressure will build in in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
the next strong cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coasts Sunday evening followed by strong to gale-force
winds and building seas of up to 14-15 ft by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds
over the central Caribbean and eastern Caribbean, and gentle to
moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Patches of low-level
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are producing isolated to
scattered passing showers across the Greater and Lesser Antilles
from time to time. Little change in this weather pattern is
expected during the next couple of days. Expect strong to near-
gale force nocturnal winds near the coast of Colombia tonight.
Strong northeast winds are then expected along the coast of
Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through the
upcoming weekend. East swell currently across the tropical
Atlantic waters, including the east Atlantic passages, will begin
to subside from the during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated to scattered showers carried by the trade winds will
continue to affect the island from time to time. Mostly dry and
stable conditions are expected to persist during the next couple
of days under the influence of a mid to upper-level ridge and
associated strong subsidence. A larger patch of moisture may
cross the island Thursday night into Friday, slightly increasing
the likelihood of showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb surface low is centered north of the area. A frontal
system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a cold front
from 31N77W to 28N81W. To the east, this low is also extending a
weakening stationary front across 31N between 60W-70W. No
significant convection is related to any of these features at this
time. The remainder of central and eastern Atlantic is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered
S of the Azores near 34N28W. The pressure gradient between this
high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/monsoon trough
is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong winds between the
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, with seas of up to 11-12
ft. The high pressure will move east and weaken some over the
next 24 hours.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net