[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 04N07W to
03N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N15W to 04N33W to 02N50W. Scattered to isolated showers are
from 01N-10N between 31W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical moisture from the EPAC continues to advect to the
northern Gulf supporting broken to overcast skies N of a
stationary front that extends from central Florida near 27N82W to
the north-central Gulf near 27N90W to south of Tampico near
21N97W. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of this boundary may
support isolated showers within 60 nm either side of it. Strong
high pressure lies to the north across much of the Great Lakes and
Lower Mississippi River valley generating moderate to occasional
fresh NE winds N of the front E of 90W and fresh to strong N winds
between 90W and 96W. The high will continue to build in from the
N-NW, thus supporting moderate to fresh E-NE winds through Friday
night. The next strong cold front is expected to emerge off the
Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level dry air and ridging aloft continue to
support generally stable conditions across the basin. Shallow
moisture embedded in the trades, however, is supporting scattered
to isolated showers across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and S of 16N.
Similar shower activity is over the western Gulf of Honduras and
Belize adjacent waters. Otherwise, fresh to strong trades prevail between
70W-80W with near gale force winds happening at night off the
coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades dominate elsewhere.
Little change is expected during the next couple of days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly dry and stable conditions are across the western half of
the island, however, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow support isolated showers across the eastern half of Dominican
Republic. Similar weather is forecast to persist through Saturday
as patches of low level moisture continue to move across the
island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion area near 30N72W
extending SW to central Florida near 27N80W. Shallow moisture may
support isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the frontal
boundary. East of the front, scattered to isolated showers are
occurring in association with a surface trough that extends from
30N63W SW to southern Andros Island. Otherwise, the remainder of
central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered S of the Azores near 33N25W.
The front will continue to stall through Friday morning when a
low pressure will develop over NE Florida adjacent waters. The
front will then transition to a cold front on Friday afternoon,
which will move across the northern SW N Atlc waters through
Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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