[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260500
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1159 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N20W to 05N30W to 05N40W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-08N between 20W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad longwave troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the
eastern CONUS and eastern Canada supporting a cold front extending
from across the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits to 24N86W becoming
stationary into a 1018 mb low centered offshore of NE Mexico near
24N96W. A stationary front extends south from the low center to
the southern Mexico coast near 18N95W. While no significant deep
convection is noted with the front...broken to overcast stratus
cloudiness is observed generally N of 24N W of 86W this evening.
Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1034 mb highs centered across
the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. The ridging is providing
gentle to moderate easterly winds which are expected to persist
through Tuesday afternoon. The area of weak low pressure across
the western Gulf will induce slightly stronger N-NE winds on
Tuesday night into Wednesday across the NW Gulf eventually
becoming more diffuse by Thursday as the frontal wave weakens
across the north-central and NE Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Rather tranquil skies prevail across the Caribbean basin this
evening with the main focus being fresh to strong trades noted on
recent scatterometer data between 72W-79W...strongest within 120
nm off the coast of Colombia. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere. A few isolated showers are occurring S of 18N
between 83W-87W...including interior portions of Honduras. Little
change is expected during the next couple of days.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated low-topped trade wind showers will continue to move
across the island through the overnight hours. Mostly dry and
stable conditions are expected to persist during the next couple
of days under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge and
associated strong subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N68W extending SW
to the NW Bahamas across the Florida Straits and into the SE Gulf
of Mexico. Mainly low clouds with embedded isolated showers are
occurring within 90 nm either side of the front this evening.
The front is expected to drift eastward through Wednesday begin to
stall and weaken on Thursday. The remainder of central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033
mb high centered west of the Azores near 38N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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