[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
611 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N08W to 05N11W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 05N11W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil at 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the
ITCZ between 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from south Florida to 24N89W to 23N95W where
it becomes stationary to the western Bay of Campeche near
Veracruz, Mexico. A well defined band of mainly low clouds with
embedded showers is associated with the front across the area.
Fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of 5-7 ft are behind the
front across the north and west Gulf waters. The cold front will
continue moving south over the Florida peninsula producing a wind
shift across south Florida, but little change in temperatures. The
western half of the front will lift north as a warm front across
the western Gulf beginning tonight, and stall across the far
north-central waters by mid-week. A low may form along the frontal
boundary over the western Gulf on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds are
across the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia,
and fresh to strong winds across the remainder of the central
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere
across the basin. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the
trade wind flow are producing isolated to scattered passing
showers across the Greater and Lesser Antilles from time to time.
This cloudiness is more concentrated over the NW Caribbean between
the Cayman Islands and the Gulf of Honduras. Little change in
this weather pattern is forecast over the next two or three days.
Strong trades will persist over the Central and SW Caribbean
through Thursday, with near gale-force nocturnal winds near the
coast of Colombia. Locally strong northeast winds are expected
through the Windward Passage on Tuesday evening. Large east swell
will build seas to 9 ft east of the Lesser Antilles along 55W
tonight and reach the east Atlantic passages on Tuesday evening
through Thursday evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low-topped trade wind showers will continue to move across the
island. Mostly dry and stable conditions are expected to persist
over the next couple of days under the influence of a mid-upper
level ridge and associated strong subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N74W and extends
across south Florida near 27N80W then into the Gulf of Mexico.
Mainly low clouds with embedded showers are related to the frontal
boundary. Latest scatterometer data indicate fresh southwesterly
winds within about 75 nm ahead of the front north of 29N while
fresh northwesterly winds prevail in the wake of the front. The
front is expected to stall from 29N65W to the Straits of Florida
tonight into early Tuesday, then gradually weaken through
Thursday. The remainder of the forecast area is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high located near the
Azores. This system will undergo occasional intensity fluctuations,
resulting in a rather tight pressure gradient across the waters
north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles through at least Wednesday. Recent ASCAT
passes provide observations of moderate to fresh winds around the
southern periphery of the ridge east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas
are in the 8-10 ft range within this area of winds based on
altimeter passes.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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