[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
524 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N18W to 03N32W to 02N40W to the Equator near 47W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 19W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad longwave troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the
eastern CONUS and eastern Canada supporting a stationary front
extending from across the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits to 24N85W
becoming a dissipating stationary front into a 1019 mb low
centered offshore of southern Texas near 27N97W. A surface trough
extends south from the low center to near 21N96W. While no
significant deep convection is noted with the front...broken to
overcast stratus cloudiness and possible isolated showers are
observed generally along and N of the front W of 85W this
morning. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered
across the Tennessee River valley. The ridging is providing
gentle to moderate E-SE winds which are expected to persist
through Tuesday afternoon. The area of weak low pressure across
the western Gulf will drift E-NE and induce slightly stronger
N-NE winds on Tuesday night into Wednesday across the NW Gulf
eventually becoming more diffuse by Thursday as the frontal wave
weakens across the north-central and NE Gulf waters. The next
strong cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coasts Sunday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Rather tranquil skies prevail across the Caribbean basin this
morning with the main focus being fresh to strong trades noted on
recent scatterometer data between 70W-80W...strongest within 120
nm off the coast of Colombia. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere. A few isolated showers are occurring S of 19N
between 83W-88W...including the Gulf of Honduras and interior
portions of Honduras and Guatemala. Little change is expected
during the next couple of days.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated low-topped trade wind showers will continue to move
across the island through the morning hours. Mostly dry and
stable conditions are expected to persist during the next couple
of days under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge and
associated strong subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N67W extending SW
to 29N72W then becomes stationary to the NW Bahamas across the
Florida Keys and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Mainly low clouds
with embedded isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either
side of the front this morning. The cold front is expected to
drift eastward through Wednesday...begin to stall and weaken on
Thursday. The remainder of central and eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered
SW of the Azores near 37N33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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