[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EST Thu Dec 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N20W to 02N30W to 02N40W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-08N between 06W-19W and within 150 nm
either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle to upper level ridging is noted on water vapor imagery over the
entire basin along with deep layer dry air, which is supporting
clear skies and fair weather. Otherwise, surface high pressure
anchored by a 1019 mb high over the central Bahamas extends a
ridge axis across the Florida peninsula and the Gulf. Light to
gentle variable winds dominate the eastern half of the basin while
mainly moderate S-SE winds are observed in the western half of
the Gulf. The next cold front is forecast to come off the coast
of Texas Friday night, extend from the Florida Big Bend SW to
Veracruz, Mexico early Sunday morning and from south Florida to
Tampico, Mexico Monday near sunrise. Fresh to near gale force
northerly winds will follow the front starting on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle to upper level ridging prevails over the Caribbean
basin with water vapor imagery indicating very dry and stable air
aloft supporting fair weather at the surface. A surface ridge
anchored across the central Bahamas continues to support a tighter pressure
gradient across the central Caribbean, thus resulting in fresh to
strong trades. However, strong to near gale force winds are
expected along the coast of Colombia. Little change in the
synoptic pattern is expected through early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad middle to upper level ridging along with deep layer dry air
continue to support fair weather conditions. High pressure over
the SW N Atlc anchored by a 1019 mb high over the central Bahamas
support pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Windward
Passage during the weekend. While overall tranquil conditions are
expected, isolated low-topped trade wind showers are possible
during the weekend along the north and eastern island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is N of the SW N Atlc waters associated with a
pair of low pressure centers. A pre-frontal trough attached to one
of these lows extends from 30N67W SW to 28N74W then W to near
Melbourne, Florida. There is no convection associated with this
trough, however scattered showers are noted SE of the lows N of
28N between 51W and 64W. Otherwise, the remainder SW N Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high
centered across the Bahamas. Farther east, a middle to upper
level low supports a weak surface trough from 27N36W to 19N39W.
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring primarily within 120 nm
east of the trough. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1042 mb high
centered W-NW of the Iberian peninsula near 43N17W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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