[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1134 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
06N16W to 05N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 05N19W to 04N28W to 01N32W to 03N39W to the Equator near 50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 01W- 20W...
and from 02N-13N between 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Middle to upper level ridging is noted on water vapor imagery over
much of the basin this afternoon as a stationary front lies
across the coastal plains from the Florida/Georgia border westward
along 31N to the Texas/Louisiana border. A pre-frontal surface
trough is analyzed from near Jacksonville W-SW to 29N83W to
28N89W. Overall clear skies prevail across much of the basin as a
ridge axis extends across the basin along 24N from a 1019 mb high
centered near Andros Island. Otherwise...gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds are expected through Thursday. As the ridging
shifts eastward...southerly return flow across the western Gulf
will increase gradually into moderate to fresh flow Thursday
afternoon into the overnight hours and early Friday ahead of the
next cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts Friday night late into early Saturday morning. Fresh to
near-gale force northerly winds will follow the front on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad middle to upper level ridging prevails over the Caribbean
basin this afternoon with water vapor imagery indicating very dry
and stable air aloft supporting fair weather at the surface. A
surface ridge anchored across the Bahamas continues to strengthen
the pressure gradient across the central Caribbean resulting in
fresh to strong trades. Slightly higher...strong to near gale
force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia. Little
change in the synoptic pattern is expected through early next
week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Broad middle to upper level ridging lies to the west of Hispaniola
with dry and stable NW flow prevailing over the island this
afternoon. While overall tranquil conditions are expected...
isolated low-topped trade wind showers are possible the next 24 to
36 hours along the north and eastern shore exposures.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a mid-level shortwave trough in the
vicinity of 33N70W supporting a 1009 mb low centered near 33N68W
with a cold front trailing W-SE from the low to the Georgia/
Florida coast near 31N81W. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring N of 29N between 58W-72W. Otherwise...the remainder of
the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge with
axis along 24N/25N anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near Andros
Island. Farther east...another middle to upper level low is
centered near 26N41W and supports a weak surface trough analyzed
from 25N47W to 30N44W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
primarily east of the troughing from 22N-32N between 34W-44W. The
remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1041 mb high centered W-NW of the Iberian
peninsula near 43N17W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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