[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N19W to
01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between
12W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid to upper-level ridging is noted on water vapor imagery over
the entire basin along with deep layer dry air, which is
supporting clear skies and fair weather. A 1020 mb surface high
is centered over the northern Bahamas and extending across the
basin. Light to gentle variable winds dominate the eastern half
of the basin while moderate southeasterly winds prevail over the
western half of the Gulf. The next cold front is forecast to come
off the coast of Texas on Friday night and prevail through the
weekend. Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds will follow the
front starting on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid to upper-level ridging prevails over the Caribbean
basin with water vapor imagery indicating very dry and stable air
aloft supporting fair weather at the surface. A surface ridge
anchored across the northern Bahamas continues to support a
tighter pressure gradient across the central Caribbean, resulting
in fresh to strong trades in this area. Strong to near gale-force
winds are expected along the coast of Colombia. Little change in
the synoptic pattern is expected through early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad mid to upper-level ridging along with deep layer dry air
continue to support fair weather conditions over the island. High
pressure over the west Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high over
the northern Bahamas supports pulses of fresh to strong winds
across the Windward Passage through the weekend. While overall
tranquil conditions are expected, isolated low-topped trade wind
showers are possible during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is N of the west Atlantic waters associated with a
low pressure center along 63W. A pre-frontal trough extends from
31N63W to 27N76W. Another trough extends east of the first one
from 31N53W to 26N60W. Scattered showers are noted between the
troughs mainly north of 28N. The remainder west Atlantic is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high
centered across the northern Bahamas near 25N77W. To the east, a
mid to upper-level low supports a surface trough that extends from
27N38W to 21N38W. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm
on either side of the trough. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1042 mb
high centered northwest of the Iberian peninsula near 43N17W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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