[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1113 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 mb low centered N of the discussion area near 37N60W is
forecast to deepen through Tuesday while moving E-SE with a cold
front expected to bring near gale to gale force W to NW winds late
tonight into Tuesday generally N of 28N W of the front to 59W.
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by late Tuesday
night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N18W to 04N34W to 02N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 01N-03N between the Prime Meridian and 05W...and from
04N-08N between 09W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-07N between 20W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
West-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this
afternoon with water vapor imagery indicating a weak mid-level
shortwave trough over the NW Gulf in the vicinity of 29N94W. The
mid-level energy is generating a few isolated showers across the
NW Gulf waters and portions of interior Louisiana within moderate
to fresh S-SE return flow across the western Gulf. Otherwise...
conditions across the remainder of the basin are relatively
tranquil as a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered
across the Mid-Atlc coast extends across the central and eastern
waters...as well as the Florida peninsula. Gentle to moderate E-SE
winds prevail elsewhere within the southwestern periphery of the
ridge and are expected to persist through Tuesday night. The next
cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts Tuesday night introducing strong to near gale N-NE winds to
the western and north-central waters as the front moves S-SE into
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Generally westerly upper level flow continues over the Caribbean
basin this afternoon with only slightly divergent flow noted on
water vapor imagery over the southwestern waters. A broad area of
low pressure focused in the vicinity of coastal Colombia and
Panama along with the divergence aloft is generating scattered
showers and widely scattered tstms S of 12N between 74W-84W. This
area of low pressure troughing extends NE across the central and
eastern portion of the basin highlighted by a surface trough
extending from 12N71W to 17N68W. Embedded within fresh trades
across the central Caribbean...low-level moisture convergence in
the vicinity of the trough is generating widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms from 13N-17N between 68W-77W. Farther east...
another surface trough lies to the E of the Lesser Antilles from
11N60W to 17N57W. Increased cloudiness accompanies this surface
trough as it continues to move westward with isolated showers
occurring S of 17N E of 65W. Fresh to strong trades are forecast
across a large portion of the basin between 64W-82W for much of
next week. High pressure will anchor across the SW North Atlc
region through the week ahead and the associated pressure gradient
is expected to impact the basin with these enhanced trades.

...HISPANIOLA...
Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions prevail across
the island as dry westerly flow aloft remains in place over the
area. A stationary front boundary lies to the NE in the adjacent
coastal waters from 20N71W to beyond 23N60W. Isolated showers and
possible isolated tstms are expected to remain N of 19N this
afternoon into the evening. Winds across the island are expected
to increase Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds in
across the SW North Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North Atlc with
a pair of middle to upper level troughs noted on water vapor
imagery N of the discussion area in the vicinity of 36N62W and
39N39W. While these two areas of middle to upper level energy
support a broad area of lower pressure and complex low centers N
of the area...the primary cold front extends into the area near
32N35W SW to 24N50W then becomes stationary to 23N60W to the
northern coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring N of 29N between 30W and the
front...and from 22N-25N between 52W-68W mostly along and N of
the stationary front. A secondary dissipating cold front extends
from 32N44W W-SW to 27N60W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW
North Atlc is under the influence of a a surface ridge anchored by
a 1029 mb high centered across Virginia. Mostly gentle to moderate
NE to E winds prevail W of 65W. Lastly...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge with axis
extending from W of the Iberian peninsula near 39N13W SW to
20N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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