[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1005 mb low centered N of the discussion area near 36N57W is
forecast to deepen through Tuesday while moving E-SE with a cold
front expected to bring near gale to gale force W to NW winds late
tonight into Tuesday generally N of 28N W of the front to 60W.
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force Tuesday night.
See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N19W to 06N30W to 03N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 04N to 09N between 08W and 28W, and from 02N to 07N
between 31W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure extends from the eastern United States southward
across the Gulf basin this evening. Flow around this high is
supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh east to southeast
winds across the region. Dry air is limiting shower activity
across the Gulf, except for within about 210 nm S of the NE Texas
and SW Louisiana coasts, where SW flow aloft is supporting a broad
band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Over the next 24 hours
the high will shift east, with SE flow expanding east to cover
the entire basin by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday night, a strong
cold front is expected to begin crossing the NW gulf, reaching
from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico by Wednesday
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep moisture over the SW Caribbean is interacting with diffluent
flow aloft to support scattered moderate convection S of 13N
between 76W and 84W. A surface trough extends from 19N65W to
15N70W and is supporting isolated thunderstorms over Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Another surface trough is just east of the
Windward Islands and is supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 240 nm west of the trough axis. The
remainder of the Caribbean is generally void of convection. High
pressure north of the region supports fresh to strong NE winds
over the Central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds
over the remainder of the Caribbean. Little change is expected
over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will dissipate tonight and
redevelop in the daytime heating on Tuesday. High pressure will
slide eastward, north of the region, which will transition winds
from NE to E over the Atlantic exposures, increasing to around
20 kt on Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure centered over the eastern United States dominates
the SW N Atlantic with NE winds and generally fair weather this
evening. A cold front enters the area of discussion over the
eastern Atlantic near 31N34W and extends to 27N41W to 24N50W,
where it transitions to a stationary front that extends to 23N60W
to 20N71W. Scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm N and 120 nm
S of the stationary front between 54W and 68W, and within 60 nm E
of the cold front N of 26N. A vigorous low pressure system N of
the discussion area near 36N57W and associated cold front will
spread gale force winds over a portion of the central Atlantic S
of 31N beginning late tonight. Please refer to the special
features section for more details. Ahead of this low, a pre-
frontal trough extends from 30N45W to 27N57W. No convection is
noted. High pressure centered over Europe extends SW and dominates
the remainder of the eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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