[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041124
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W to
04N47W. A surface trough extends from 16N56W to 12N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the ITCZ between 22W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the northeast Gulf from 27N87W to
28N84W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. High
pressure centered over the eastern CONUS extends southwest across
the basin, with moderate northerly winds north of the trough, and
mainly moderate easterly winds over the remainder of the area.
The moist return flow over the northwest Gulf is supporting
scattered showers north of 26N and west of 90W. Patchy fog has
been reported by stations over the northwest Gulf. These
conditions will improve by late morning. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient that prevails over the western Caribbean is
supporting moderate to fresh northeasterly winds across much of
area, with dry air an subsidence supporting generally fair
weather conditions. Locally strong easterly winds are occurring
over the lee of Cuba and near the coast of northeast Colombia. To
the east, a surface trough extends over the east Caribbean with
axis extending from eastern Puerto Rico near 18N66W to 13N68W.
Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis. A surge of
low level moisture is arriving well ahead of another surface
trough over the central tropical Atlantic. This moisture supports
scattered showers south of 15N and east of 65W. Over the next 24
hours, the east Caribbean trough will drift west, while showers
continue over the southeast Caribbean. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tail end of a stationary front extends to just north of
the island near 20N70W. Moisture in northeast flow to the west of
the front supports showers over the northwest portion of the
island. The front will dissipate today with a general decrease in
shower activity expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The cold front over the west Atlantic has weakened to a trough
that extends from 31N71W to 28N79W. Isolated showers are noted
in the vicinity of the trough. To the east, another cold front
enters the area of discussion near 31N38W and extends to 24N52W,
then it transitions to a stationary front to near 20N70W.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 24N between 35W-45W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1037 mb high centered north of the area. Over the
next 24 hours the low pressure supporting the central Atlantic
cold front will intensify, with an increasing likelihood that gale
conditions could occur near the cold front over the waters just
south of 31N by tonight into Tuesday. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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