[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N21W to
07N50W. A surface trough extends from 15N54W to 10N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the ITCZ between 29W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the northeast Gulf from 28N88W to
28N84W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. High
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley extends southwest over the
remainder of the basin, with moderate northerly winds north of
the trough, and mainly moderate easterly winds over the remainder
of the area. The moist return flow over the northwest Gulf is
supporting scattered showers north of 26N and west of 90W. Patchy
fog may develop over the NW Gulf overnight. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient that prevails over the western Caribbean is
supporting moderate to fresh northeasterly winds across much of
area, with dry air an subsidence supporting generally fair
weather conditions. Locally strong easterly winds are occurring
over the lee of Cuba and near the coast of northeast Colombia. To
the east, a surface trough extends over the east Caribbean with
axis extending from eastern Puerto Rico near 18N66W to 13N70W.
Isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the trough axis. A
surge of low level moisture is arriving well ahead of another
surface tough over the central tropical Atlantic. This moisture
supports numerous showers south of 15N and east of 64W. Over the
next 24 hours the east Caribbean trough will drift west, while
showers continue over the southeast Caribbean. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tail end of a stationary front extends to just north of
the island near 20N70W. Moisture in northeast flow to the west of
the front supports showers over the northwest portion of the
island. The front will dissipate by Monday with a general decrease
in shower activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N74W and
extends to 28N80W with scattered showers within 90 nm on either
side of the front. To the east, another cold front enters the
area of discussion near 31N40W and extends to 24N54W, then it
transitions to a stationary front to near 20N70W. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 24N between 37W-45W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 28N25W. Over the next 24 hours the
front off Florida will dissipate. The low pressure supporting the
central Atlantic cold front will intensify, with an increasing
likelihood that gale conditions could occur near the cold front
over the waters just south of 31N on Monday night into Tuesday.
The high over the eastern Atlantic will dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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