[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
06N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N21W to 04N34W to 05N50W. A surface trough extends from 15N53W
to 08N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N
between 22W and 43W and from 07N to 15N between 45W and 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A weakening stationary front traverses the NE Gulf from north
Florida near 29N82W to 28N89W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the frontal boundary. A weak surface trough extends from 23N97W
to 19N95W. No convection is noted. High pressure centered over the
Ohio Valley extends SW over the remainder of the gulf basin, with
moderate northerly winds N of the stationary front, and mainly
moderate easterly winds over the remainder of the eastern Gulf.
Moderate SE winds cover the western Gulf. The moist return flow
over the NW Gulf is supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms N of 24N W of 93W. Patchy fog may develop over the
NW Gulf overnight tonight. The stationary front will dissipate as
the high to the north shifts to the east, and SE flow expands
eastward across the remainder of the Gulf basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure over the eastern United States supports moderate to
fresh NE winds across much of the western Caribbean, with dry air
an subsidence supporting generally fair weather conditions.
Locally strong NE winds are occurring over the Lee of Cuba and
near the coast of NE Colombia. A surface trough extends over the
east central Caribbean with an axis from the Mona Passage to near
11N70W. Isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the trough
axis. A surge of low level moisture is arriving well ahead of
another surface tough over the central tropical Atlantic. This
moisture supports numerous showers S of 13N and E of 64W. Over the
next 24 hours the E Caribbean trough will drift west, while
showers continue over the SE Caribbean. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...
The tail end of a stationary front extends to just north of
Hispaniola near 20N70W. Moisture in NE flow to the west of the
front supports showers over the northwest portion of the island.
The front will dissipate by Monday with a general decrease in
shower activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N77W and extends
to 29N80W supporting showers within 90 NM SE of the front.
Another cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N44W and
extends to 26N49W to 23N58W, where it transitions to a stationary
front to near 20N70W. Numerous thunderstorms are within 270 nm E
of the front N of 24N. Scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm of
either side of the stationary front. Strong to near gale force
winds are occurring N of 27N within 300 nm of either side of the
cold front. High pressure of 1021 mb centered near 27N25W
dominates the eastern Atlantic waters. Over the next 24 hours the
front off Florida will dissipate. The low pressure supporting the
central Atlantic cold front will intensify, with an increasing
likelihood that gale conditions could occur near the cold front
over the waters just south of 31N on Monday night into Tuesday.
The high over the eastern Atlantic will dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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