[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1134 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N20W to 04N34W to 07N51W. A surface trough extends from 06N55W
to 13N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-13N between
36W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates mostly dry and stable conditions
aloft as broad middle to upper level ridging influences much of
the basin this afternoon. However a middle to upper level
shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery over northern
Mexico and the Texas Big Bend region supporting increasing
cloudiness across the NW Gulf. At the surface...a weak stationary
front extends across northern Florida to 29N90W with isolated
showers possible within 45 nm either side of the front.
Elsewhere...a surface trough is analyzed across the SW Gulf
waters providing focus for isolated showers possible S of 25N W of
95W. Otherwise...surface ridging prevails with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds occurring on the southern periphery of ridging
anchored across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. S-SE return
flow is expected to re-establish itself on Monday across much of
the basin with the next cold front forecast to emerge off the
Texas and Louisiana coasts late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge axis extends from over northern Colombia and
the SW Caribbean NW to over NW Caribbean. Westerly flow prevails
east of the ridge axis over much of the remainder of the basin
providing overall dry and stable conditions aloft. One surface
feature of note is a surface trough extending from near Bonaire NE
to near the US/UK Virgin Islands. Isolated showers are possible
within 90 nm either side of the boundary this afternoon.
Elsewhere across the basin outside of the influence of the surface
trough...moderate to fresh NE winds prevail and are expected to
persist through tonight. This wind field is expected to gradually
strengthen through Monday night with fresh to strong trades
forecast across a large portion of the basin between 64W-82W for
much of next week. High pressure anchored across the SW North
Atlc region through the week ahead and the associated pressure
gradient is expected to impact the basin with these enhanced
trades.

...HISPANIOLA...
Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions prevail across
the island as dry westerly flow aloft remains in place over the
area. A remnant frontal boundary lies to the N in the adjacent
coastal waters from 22N65W to 20N70W. Isolated showers and
possible isolated tstms are expected to remain N of 20N this
afternoon into the evening. Little change is expected through
Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North
Atlc with a middle to upper level trough moving off the Mid-Atlc
coast. The troughing supports a 1017 mb low centered off the coast
of North Carolina near 34N76W with the associated cold front
extending SW to 31N79W becoming stationary to the Florida coast
near Jacksonville. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring N of
29N between 72W-78W. Farther east...another middle to upper level
trough is noted over the central Atlc with axis along 60W that
supports a 1004 mb low centered near 32N48W The associated cold
front extends from the low SW to 27N50W to 23N60W becoming
stationary to the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W.
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 23N between 35W and
the cold front boundary. Additional isolated showers and tstms are
occurring in the vicinity of the stationary from from 20N-24N
between 58W-72W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high
centered W of Canary Island near 29N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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