[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N21W to
06N47W, and resumes west of a surface trough near 07N52W to
06N57W. The surface trough extends from 13N47W to 08N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 38W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle
near 30N86W to 29N91W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of
either side of the front, with moderate northeast winds are north
of the front. Moderate southwesterly winds prevail south of the
front. A surface trough is over the southwest Gulf with an axis
extending from 23N92W to 19N93W with isolated showers. Light to
gentle winds are west of the trough axis while mainly moderate
easterly winds cover the remainder of the basin. Over the next 24
hours the stationary front will dissipate. Return southeasterly
flow will then dominate the basin through Tuesday, before a cold
front reaches the northwest Gulf coast Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pressure gradient over the western Caribbean is strong enough
to support moderate to fresh northeasterly winds mainly west of
71W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough
extends east of Puerto Rico from 18N64W to 11N67W with isolated
showers. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. Winds
will increase slightly over the western Caribbean by Sunday night
as the high to the northwest shifts eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Scattered
showers are possible during the next 24 hours as a frontal
boundary approaches from the north enhancing convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N54W and
extends to 23N62W with no significant convection. Moderate to
fresh northeast winds are within about 500 nm west of the front. A
complex low pressure system is just east of this front over the
central Atlantic. A low of 1007 mb is centered near 31N49W. A
surface trough extends from this low to near 21N56W. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 22N between 39W-53W. Fresh
easterly winds are north of the surface trough, while moderate to
fresh southwest winds are south of the front. A 1021 mb high
centered near 27N25W dominates the eastern Atlantic. Over the next
24 hours, the low will continue moving northeast north of 31N.
The cold front will continue to move eastward with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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