[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1123 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to
10N15W to 06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N18W to 05N30W to 08N42W. A surface trough extends from
05N44W to 11N40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-12N
between 32W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates mostly dry and stable conditions
aloft as broad middle to upper level ridging influences much of
the basin this afternoon. At the surface...a 1020 mb low is
centered across southern Georgia with a weak stationary front
extending SW across the Florida panhandle to the coast near 30N85W
then to 27N94W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either
side of the front. Elsewhere...a pair of surface troughs are
analyzed across the SW Gulf waters providing focus for isolated
showers possible S of 25N W of 91W. Otherwise...surface ridging
prevails with gentle to moderate easterly wind S of the front and
light and variable winds in the vicinity of the front and across
the western Gulf in the vicinity of the surface trough boundaries.
S-SE return flow is expected to re-establish itself on Monday
across much of the basin with the next cold front forecast to
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge axis extends from over the SW Caribbean near
10N78W NW to over the Yucatan peninsula. NW flow prevails east of
the ridge axis over much of the remainder of the basin providing
overall dry and stable conditions aloft. One surface feature of
note is a surface trough extending from near Bonaire NE to near
Saint Croix. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring from 13N-17N between 63W-67W. Elsewhere across the
basin outside of the influence of the surface trough...moderate to
fresh NE winds prevail and are expected to persist through Sunday
night. This wind field is expected to gradually strengthen through
Monday night with fresh to strong trades forecast across a large
portion of the basin between 64W-82W for much of next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions prevail across
the island as dry NW flow aloft remains in place over the area.
Little change is expected through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted over the western North
Atlc with axis along 64W that supports a 1011 mb low centered
near 36N59W and the associated cold front extending from the low
to 29N65W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm either side
of the front. To the south...a broad area of lower pressure is
analyzed between 44W-67W focused on a 1010 mb low centered near
26N62W. A surface trough trails SW to near the northern coast of
Hispaniola near 20N71W. Isolated showers are occurring generally
within 180 nm N of the trough axis within an area of moderate to
fresh N-NE winds. East of the low...a stationary front extends
from the low to 28N56W and meanders into a weaker 1012 mb low
centered near 29N48W. Between the lows in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary...scattered showers and tstms are occurring from
22N-32N between 43W-60W. Much of this convection is enhanced due
to a middle to upper level shortwave noted on water vapor imagery
in the vicinity of 26N56W and will continue moving E-NE and
eventually N of the discussion area by Sunday night. Farther
east...A broad complex upper level low is centered near 42N37W
supporting a cold front extending from across the Azores to 32N34W
to 31N41W becoming stationary to 32N51W. Isolated showers are
possible N of 28N between 30W-43W. Otherwise...the remainder of
the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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