[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 05N35W to 07N44W, and resumes W of a surface trough near
07N47W to 07N60W. The surface trough extends from 11N43W to
05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between
44W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W
to 28N90W to 26N95W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either
side of the front. Moderate NE winds are N of the front. Moderate
SW winds are S of the front. A surface trough is over the SW gulf
with an axis extending from 24N95W to 19N93W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of either side of the trough axis. Light to
gentle winds are W of the trough axis. Mainly moderate easterly
winds cover the remainder of the Gulf basin this evening. Over the
next 24 hours the stationary front will weaken. Return SE flow
will then dominate the basin Sunday night through Tuesday, before
a cold front reaches the NW Gulf coast Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Surface high pressure centered NW of the region supports moderate
to fresh NE winds over the western Caribbean this evening, with
the strongest winds over the Lee of Cuba, including the Cayman
Islands, and also along the coast of NE Colombia. A surface
trough is over the eastern Caribbean with an axis extending from
19N63W to 12N69W. Scattered thunderstorms are from 12N to 19N
between 61W and 69W. Otherwise, the Caribbean basin is nearly void
of thunderstorm activity. Light winds are within 90 nm of the
trough axis, while moderate easterly trades cover the remainder of
the eastern Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24
hours. Winds will increase slightly over the western Caribbean
Sunday night as the high to the NW shifts eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the island
as a cold front passes just north of the area. Showers embedded in
NE winds will persist over the northern portion of the island through
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N58W and extends to
26N62W to 21N69W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within about 500
nm NW of the front. A complex low pressure system with a pair of
low centers is just east of this front over the central Atlantic.
The westernmost low of 1009 mb is centered near 29N56W. A surface
trough extends from the low SW to near 21N66W. The easternmost
low of 1011 mb is centered near 30N46W. A weakening stationary
front extends between these two lows. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 24N between 41W and 57W, primarily confined
between the two low centers. Fresh easterly winds are N of the
stationary front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are S of the front. A
1020 mb high centered near 27N28W dominates the Atlantic basin
east of the central Atlantic lows. Over the next 24 hours the lows
will move NE and north of 31N. The cold front will continue to
move eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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