[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 06N52W. Scattered
showers is noted 04N-08N between 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The mid to upper-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico is
anticyclonic with generally westerly winds noted. Moderate to
strong subsidence prevails over the entire basin which led to
generally fair conditions overall. A surface trough extends from
30N84W to 26N93W. No convection is associated to this trough at
this time. To the southwest, another surface trough extends across
the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers.
Patchy fog is developing over the north central portion of the
basin mainly north of 28N between 88W-92W. These conditions will
dissipate by late this morning. Scatterometer data indicated
generally light to moderate northeast winds over most of the
basin, with winds becoming fresh near the Straits of Florida and
the Yucatan Channel. Light to moderate northwest winds were noted
west of the surface trough over the northern half of the basin and
within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico. This trough is forecast to
lift slowly northward today as southeast return flow resumes over
the basin west of 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level flow over the Caribbean is anticyclonic in
nature, west of 80W with generally westerly winds noted over the
entire basin. Moderate to strong subsidence was noted over most of
the basin with the strongest subsidence noted over Cuba. This
resulted in generally fair conditions overall. The monsoon trough
is along 10N between 77W and 84W, continuing into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers are noted over portions of
Panama and Costa Rica. Scatterometer data and surface observations
depict generally light to moderate easterly winds across the
basin with fresh to locally strong winds within 60 nm of the coast
of Colombia. Little change in the overall pattern is expected
through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mid to upper-level westerly winds with increasingly strong
subsidence was noted over the island. With this, fair weather
prevails across the area. Little change in conditions is expected
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic along
70W. At the surface, a 1010 mb low is centered near 27N62W, with a
dissipating stationary front extending from the low to 27N53W. To
the east, a 1011 low is near 28N50W. A warm front extends from
this low to 28N45W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with
these features mainly north of 23N between 45W-62W. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored
by a 1020 mb high near 27N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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