[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N35W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted 04N-07N between 25W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The overall mid to upper-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico is
anticyclonic with generally westerly winds noted. Moderate to
strong subsidence prevails over the entire basin which led to
generally fair conditions overall. A frontal boundary has weakened
to a surface trough, that extends from 29N83W to 25N95W. No
convection is associated to this trough at this time. To the
southwest, another surface trough extends across the Bay of
Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula with showers. Scatterometer
data indicated generally light to moderate northeast winds over
most of the basin, with winds becoming fresh near the Straits of
Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Light to moderate northwest
winds were noted west of the surface trough over the northern half
of the basin and within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico. The
remnants of the frontal boundary are forecast to lift slowly
northward through Sat as southeast return flow resumes over the
basin west of 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level flow over the Caribbean is anticyclonic in
nature, west of 80W with generally westerly winds noted over the
entire basin. Moderate to strong subsidence was noted over most of
the basin with the strongest subsidence noted over Cuba. This
resulted in generally fair conditions overall. The monsoon trough
is along 09N between 77W and 84W, continuing into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection as noted over
portions of Panama and Costa Rica. Scatterometer data and surface
observations depict generally light to moderate easterly winds
across the basin with fresh to locally strong winds within 60 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Little change in the overall pattern is
expected through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mid to upper-level westerly winds with increasingly strong
subsidence was noted over the island. With this, fair weather
prevails across the area. Little change in conditions is expected
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic along
70W. At the surface, a 1010 mb low is centered near 26N65W, with
stationary front extending from the low to a 1014 low near 27N52W.
The front continues from the second low to 24N40W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails north of 20N between 60W-70W. To the
east, a weakening cold front extends from 31N22W to 28N25W with
scattered moderate convection. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high
near 25N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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