[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000Z UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 28.0N 95.0W at 29/0600 UTC
or about 80 nm ESE of Port O'Connor Texas moving ESE at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present N of the center from 29N to 31N between 95W
and 97W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring over a large
area E of the center associated with feeder bands N of a line from
32N74W to 28N80W. The center of Harvey is now over the Gulf of
Mexico. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 32.5N 79.5W at
29/0600 UTC or about 20 nm ESE of Charleston South Carolina and
about 130 nm SW of Wilmington North Carolina. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is seen from 31N
to 33N between 76W and 78W. Scattered moderate convection is found
elsewhere from 30N to 34N between 74W and 78W. The system will
move from the coast of South Carolina along the North Carolina
Outer Banks today to east of Cape Hatteras this evening. See
latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic associated with a 1008 mb
low that is located near 12N22W. The wave axis extends from 20N22W
to the low to 05N22W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is observed within 240 nm of the low center. The wave
is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture as seen on TPW
satellite imagery. This system has become better organized since
yesterday, and a tropical depression could form from this system
in two or three days over the eastern Atlantic. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is possible in portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands through Wednesday. There is a medium chance for this
system to become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending
from 24N36W to 11N37W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave
coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough in initial model wind
fields. TPW satellite imagery shows an area of modest deep layer
moisture located on the east side of the wave. Satellite imagery
also shows the presence of a large area of Saharan dust to the N
and W of the wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed from 12N to 16N between 22W and 26W.

A tropical wave over the E Caribbean extends from 25N65W to
10N67W moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The wave coincides with modest 700
mb troughing in initial model wind fields. SSMI TPW imagery shows
this wave is embedded in an area of modest deep layer moisture.
Isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave over the west central Caribbean extends from
20N78W to 09N79W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave coincides with
subtle 700 mb troughing in initial model wind fields. TPW
satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of modest
deep layer moisture. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring within
90 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal in west Africa near
17N16W to low pres 1008 mb near 12N22W to 12N35W to 09N47W. Other
than the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is taking place from 08N to 11N between 36W
and 43W. In addition, a weak surface trough extends from 15N50W to
06N51W. No significant convection is currently associated with
this trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Harvey has a low-level exposed center located over
the Gulf of Mexico near 28N95W. Associated deep convection
displaced N of the center over SE Texas. Feeder bands continue to
produce isolated moderate convection over the north central Gulf,
Louisiana, and Mississippi. Inland flooding is forecast to
continue over Texas and Louisiana for the next few days.
Elsewhere, a surface trough traverses N Florida and the NE Gulf
from 32N80W to 28N84W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed N of a line from 32N74W to 28N80W. In the
upper levels, an upper level trough is located over central Texas.
Divergent upper-level winds are located east of the trough axis
over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida N of 26N. Harvey is expected
to drift slowly NE along the middle and upper coasts of Texas
through Tuesday night, then move inland over SW Louisiana on
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters. See
the tropical waves section for additional details. The eastern
terminus of the E Pacific monsoon trough passes over Costa Rica,
and Panama and producing scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection over the Caribbean S of 12N and W of 75W. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over W Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel. In the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the Cayman Islands near 19N81W enhancing showers
over Jamaica and E Cuba.

...HISPANIOLA...

Relatively dry weather prevails over the island. Expect more
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours as an
approaching tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough
approaching from the N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered N of the area near
32N80W. This system continues to impact the northwestern portion
of the discussion area with convection, and 20 to 25 kt winds and
seas to 9 ft. See above. A broad 1028 mb high centered just N of
the Azores near 40N28W ridges SW to Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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